The new hydrogen economy will not just be global, it must be used as a major economic development opportunity for low income nations and promoting shared prosperity, explain Dolf Gielen, Silvia Carolina Lopez Rocha and Priyank Lathwal at the World Bank. They carefully lay out the obstacles and pathways for making hydrogen in developing countries. It’s very capital intensive, but such projects – think of existing fossil fuels, mining, etc. – have … [Read more...]
Biofuel is approaching a feedstock crunch. How bad? And what must be done?
The IEA is warning that biodiesel, renewable diesel and biojet fuel producers are heading for a feedstock supply crunch over the next five years. Rising prices are the signal to seek out new supplies and solutions, which should – and are - driving the development of government programmes and industry innovation. Here, the IEA lays out their projections for 2022-2027, covering all the main feedstocks: sugars, maize, soy oil, rapeseed oil, palm … [Read more...]
China’s electricity market design should choose from successes in Europe, UK, Australia, USA
China has made substantial initial progress in its electricity market reform, but it still faces an uphill struggle in promoting the consumption of renewables, resource allocation across provinces and regions, and unlocking demand side potential. To help choose the best solutions China could do well to look at the “Handbook on Electricity Markets”, says Daisy Chi at ECECP. The 600-page book looks at the current state of power markets around the … [Read more...]
EU Energy Outlook to 2060: how will power prices and revenues develop for wind, solar, gas, hydrogen + more
Alex Schmitt and Huangluolun Zhou at Energy Brainpool present a summary of their “EU Energy Outlook 2060”. Its scenarios map out how the European (EU 27, UK, Switzerland and Norway) energy system will change dramatically in the coming decades. Current geopolitical tensions are added to climate mitigation and an outdated power plant fleet as the main drivers of change at the EU and national levels. The in-depth modelling is trying to answer the … [Read more...]
IEA says peak coal is a few years away, but China’s demand for energy suggests not
Lucas Davis at the Haas School of Business questions the IEA’s optimism revealed in its latest World Energy Outlook 2022 that predicted coal will peak in the next few years. In 2021, global coal consumption increased 5% and global electricity generation from coal reached an all-time high. China is the main driver - last year over half of all coal-fired electricity generation came from China - and its energy demand keeps rising. Between 2000 and … [Read more...]
EU electricity market reform: completing, not dismantling, the integration is the answer
Leonardo Meeus at the Florence School of Regulation explains why electricity market reform in the EU must be about completing the process of integration, not unwinding it. He breaks down his argument into five categories – Electricity Markets, Contracts for Difference (CfD) and Power Purchase Agreements (PPA), Capacity Remuneration Mechanisms (CRM), Energy Communities, and Demand-side Flexibility – and with each he defines their purpose, looks at … [Read more...]
European gas prices have fallen sharply since August. What happens next?
Prices on the European gas market have fallen sharply since August 2022 and Europe’s gas storage facilities are almost full. That’s good news, but the problems aren’t over. Simon Göss at cr.hub, writing for Energy Brainpool, explains why by looking at the data. He runs through the main factors driving the changes, primarily strong LNG imports, Norway’s increased production, mild weather, and lower gas consumption (particularly in industry). … [Read more...]
As spot market electricity prices break all records, what is the prediction for winter?
Spot market prices for electricity have been breaking all records, as European leaders and their ministers intensify their discussions on how to deal with the crisis. Simon Göss at cr.hub, writing for Energy Brainpool, starts by explaining how the markets work, noting that price rises are indeed being driven by fossil prices and not CO2 certificates. Göss looks at how prices have climbed in Germany, France, the Baltics and Spain, and how the … [Read more...]
Don’t cap gas prices for consumers. It won’t reduce demand. Instead, subsidies must reward cuts in gas use
European nations are considering capping the price of gas that consumers pay, a subsidy that governments will pay for, to ensure households don’t freeze this winter. Daniel Gros at CEPS warns that this strategy will remove the incentive for consumers to cut their gas use, keeping international market prices high. Instead, governments should incentivise a reduction in gas use. Gros has modelled two strategies. The first is to pay households for … [Read more...]
How to ramp up Hydrogen under the new REPowerEU targets
What needs to be done to develop hydrogen as a major fuel in Europe as the continent looks to diversify away from Russian oil and gas supplies? The war in Ukraine has led to the EU substantially raising its hydrogen ambitions. While the earlier “Fit for 55” target for 2030 was set at 5.6 Mt, the new REPowerEU strategy has increased the target to 20 Mt, to replace 50 bcm of Russian gas. That means, for example, the use of hydrogen in industrial … [Read more...]
Implementing Poland’s national Recovery and Resilience Plan
How should Poland implement its national Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP)? Sonia Buchholtz at Forum Energii outlines some important answers. First, a deep analysis of the challenges and assessment of the solutions and reforms must start now. Buchholtz says though the directions set out in the RRP are correct, the details are out-of-date. Policy reforms and more ambitious targets are needed in all the main areas: energy efficiency and heating; … [Read more...]
4 ways to cut whole system electricity costs with flexible Demand Side Management
Right now, energy system costs are driven by generation capacity, infrastructure upgrades, network reinforcements, curtailment and constraint payments, and imbalance costs. What’s missing is the investment in a raft of demand side management assets that are ready to go but are not part of the market, therefore not rewarded, and therefore not being invested in. Laura Sandys at Energy Systems Catapult, writing for WEF, explains why flexibility must … [Read more...]
Fossil Fuel divestment is premature: instead, enable investment to keep prices low, and tax consumption
We need to shift investment from fossil fuels to other climate-friendly energy sources, but it must be done more intelligently than we’re doing it today, says Schalk Cloete. The rapid global economic development needed to uplift the 86% of the world’s population currently living below $1,000/month is inextricably linked to the continued and timely growth in an abundant supply of affordable energy. It would be unjust – and probably futile – to … [Read more...]
U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2022 reveals no reduction in emissions to 2050
The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its influential 2022 “Annual Energy Outlook” (AEO2022) which projects the electricity mix over the next 30 years. (The modelling takes policies and global conditions as they were in November 2021, so the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is not accounted for, nor any future unforeseeable shocks, and assumes no new policies to 2050). Sandra Sattler at the Union of … [Read more...]
Lower driving speeds + more: behaviour change can make up for 2.7m barrels/day loss of Russian oil imports
Russia normally exports 5m barrels of oil a day. Sanctions may now see Ukraine-supporting nations refuse to buy 3m of them. Can those nations cut their consumption by the same amount, immediately, and stop shortages and further price rises? Yes, says Lucas Davis at the Haas School of Business. Following the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the IEA has released a report “A 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use”, with ten ideas for immediate actions in advanced … [Read more...]
