Carbon border adjustments are carbon taxes imposed on carbon intensive imports that have not been carbon-taxed at source. It’s a good way to penalise “dirty” goods and remove any competitive advantage the exporter gains from not paying for its pollution. Regions across the world are trying to figure out the best way – how, when, if at all - to roll them out. But Joseph Shapiro, writing for the Energy Institute at Haas, points out that the … [Read more...]
Bounceback or Recession? Modelling the impact on electricity prices to 2025
Carlos Perez Linkenheil at Energy Brainpool models three scenarios to understand the factors that are having the biggest impact on – and thereby make predictions for - electricity prices, revenues, energy source merit order, and emissions in the EU. Other parameters in the scope of their analysis include oil prices, gas prices, commodities markets, carbon taxes, and the EUA/emissions market. Clearly, collapsing prices are profoundly distorting … [Read more...]
Stimulus opportunity: Hand all carbon taxes to households
Governments worldwide now have the opportunity to radically rethink how household consumption can be stimulated, and where that money can come from. And every serious politician knows a radical change in fiscal policy is a rare opportunity to shape perceptions and values. This could be that moment for carbon taxes. Gerard Wynn at IEEFA first notes the success they have had in reducing emissions in the EU. With a rise in the CO2 price on the … [Read more...]
Coronavirus bailouts should be explicit, not hidden by CO2 tax cuts. And nothing for Oil
Many industries will be pleading their case for a Coronavirus bailout. Severin Borenstein at the Energy Institute at Haas explains why the oil industry should not be one of them. Oil prices, already on the slide, are indeed sinking lower thanks to the pandemic. But decarbonisation should be sending them that way anyway. And the oil price has always be artificially high thanks to the OPEC cartel and weak or complicit “competition” from non-OPEC … [Read more...]
Poland’s PGE: profits from Renewables can replace declining Coal’s
Poland’s PGE is one of Europe’s most fossil fuel intensive energy firms. Coal makes up around 90% of its electricity generation. It’s been investing around PLN 28bn ($7.2bn, €7bn) to build three new coal power plant units, acquire the Polish coal assets of France’s EDF, and upgrade its existing fleet to meet air quality standards. But a new and detailed report from IEEFA warns that the profitability of these investments will decline in the 2020s … [Read more...]
Canada is launching methane emissions rules for Oil and Gas
January 2020 marked the first time the Canadian government has targeted methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. They’ve committed to reduce oil and gas methane emissions by 40% to 45% below 2012 levels by 2025. Reducing methane emissions is considered one of the most cost-effective ways to cut global emissions. Methane equates to around 5.4% of the country’s total emissions of 716 Mt CO2-eq. The IEA estimates global methane emissions from … [Read more...]
Gas Switching Reforming: making Hydrogen to balance variable Wind, Solar
What is the best technology to balance the variable output of wind and solar? When there is little wind and sun the plant must produce power to compensate. When there’s too much wind and sun it must utilise that excess power. In other words, given the high capital cost of the new balancing technology it must do both profitably enough to cover the time sitting idle. A paper co-authored by Schalk Cloete looks at Gas Switching Reforming (GSR). The … [Read more...]
The cost of climate inaction: putting a $ price on 4.5°C warming
Oriana Tannenbaum and Rushad Nanavatty at Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) have gathered data that puts a price on not making the necessary investments in tackling climate change. For the U.S., a 4.5°C warming scenario (by 2050) will cost $5.2tn. At a more drastic 6°C the cost is $17tn. These projections are hard to do when treating the climate as an “infrastructure asset”, though proven methodologies do exist for tradition assets, and the authors … [Read more...]
Carbon Tax: “laboratory” Europe shows U.S. it has no effect on aggregate jobs, growth
The issue of carbon taxes is under debate in the U.S. Congress. The fear is a new tax will destroy jobs and hinder growth. Will it? Meredith Fowlie at the Energy Institute at Haas says the U.S. should see Europe as a very useful carbon tax laboratory experiment: half the countries have some sort of tax, the other half don’t. She’s pulled together evidence to answer the simple question: does a carbon tax affect aggregate employment and growth. Her … [Read more...]
Hydrogen’s future: reducing costs, finding markets
Although 100Mt/year of hydrogen is produced globally and at scale, it’s overwhelmingly for the chemical industry. So there’s a long way to go for it to play a role in the energy transition. It’s not even clear whether hydrogen will be best used directly as a power source or through further conversion into other powerfuels. That's why Dolf Gielen and Emanuele Taibi at IRENA are scoping out the challenges of reducing production costs and finding … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 v the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 to compare with this year’s IEA World Energy Outlook, published mid-November. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another, like a very high carbon tax) in 2030: in his opinion it will be the best way to accelerate the transition to meet the Paris goals as the 1.5°C … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 4 of 5): Nuclear, biomass and CCS
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technological progress, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. If nuclear, biomass and CCS take off they will … [Read more...]
Calculating the effect of $50/tonne CO2 on energy prices
Despite much debate, governments are hesitant to raise – or even impose – carbon pricing, worried about the direct impact it will have on businesses and consumers.To help understand its effect Severin Borenstein at the Energy Institute at Haas has crunched the numbers of a $50/tonne CO2 price, very expensive by today’s standards. He’s calculated the actual price increases on a gallon of petrol/gasoline, gas- and coal-fired generation, and natural … [Read more...]
Accelerating electromobility in east Europe: a how-to guide (part 1)
While record electric vehicle (EV) sales in high income countries keep making headlines they’re struggling to take off anywhere else. Sarah Keay-Bright plots a pathway for change. Like anywhere else, public investment must come first, carefully paving the way for private to follow. So that means getting the tax regime right. As taxes rise to disincentivise fossil cars those revenues will fall as people go electric. So they need to be replaced. … [Read more...]
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