In the U.S. coal’s market share for power generation has halved in 10 years to 24%, from close to 50% in 2008. That year a record 1,172m tons was produced. But a combination of the rapid drop in solar and wind costs, continued competition from cheap gas, and ageing coal plants (most were built between 1965 and 1985) means that steep decline is set to continue, say Seth Feaster and Karl Cates of IEEFA U.S.. It’s why Cloud Peak Energy, the … [Read more...]
UK oil & gas keeps rising. Clean Energy blueprint can reverse it
In the UK the £2.3bn (=$2.9bn / €2.6bn) in new oil and gas subsidies introduced since 2014 will state-fund the addition of twice as much carbon as its coal phaseout saves, says a new report “Sea Change: Climate Emergency, Jobs and Managing the Phase-out of UK Oil and Gas Extraction”. Can the UK call itself a climate leader if its existing policies push it over its emissions limits? It can, if you consider this: the UK took 16 years to become the … [Read more...]
Carbon Capture: Can CO2-EOR really provide carbon-negative oil?
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) injects CO2 into oil reservoirs, increasing the pressure and forcing the oil out. 20% of global oil production uses EOR. But if that CO2 doesn’t stay underground it hasn’t been captured. If it was itself extracted from natural underground CO2, there is no benefit – or worse. Ideally, it should come from already captured CO2. But most oil wells are nowhere near a CCUS (carbon capture, usage and storage) facility: in the … [Read more...]
Russian – EU – Ukrainian gas talks: don’t believe the hype, it’s (almost) business as usual
The bilateral Russia Ukraine gas transit contract expires at the end of this year bringing the potentially conflicting interests of both parties and the EU into focus. The EU will be acting in the interest of those member states directly affected as well as having a role in avoiding tensions affecting its neighbour Ukraine. Cue much speculation from interested and neutral observers alike. Zuzanna Nowak, independent researcher and commentator, … [Read more...]
Developing World: cashflow analysis shows gas, coal far more profitable than clean energy
80% of future energy infrastructure will be built in the developing world. Schalk Cloete has already written for us on the purely economic viability of developed world onshore wind, utility-scale solar PV, nuclear, natural gas and coal. He now presents his detailed cashflow analyses of the major generator technologies applied to the developing world. Because costs tend to be much lower the returns are higher. But gas and coal still easily … [Read more...]
We need to trace the real fossil fuel users, not just the “end consumers”
Climate-consciousness is rising among ordinary citizens. But most fossil fuels are consumed by large technological systems (electricity networks, urban transport systems, built environments, industrial and agricultural systems), not by individuals. Simon Pirani says we need to trace that consumption to its true source, and thereby put the pressure directly on them to transition. It’s not simple: even the IEA admits it loses track of who is … [Read more...]
New “Gas for Climate” scenarios: can green gas and hydrogen save gas pipelines?
Gas has a key role to play in decarbonising the energy sector. Until a comprehensive clean energy network can accommodate variable renewables using storage, baseload power will be needed. Natural gas is a lower carbon option than coal, so there is a strong case for it to be the first-choice bridging fuel towards a net-zero energy economy. However, exactly how much gas, what type of gas and how existing infrastructure can store energy in the form … [Read more...]
Why does coal survive? A detailed real-world cashflow analysis
Everyone knows coal plants are bad for the environment. So why do countries still use them? Coal’s attractiveness comes from the relatively low up front capital investment required to start generating energy. On top of that, the rapid rise of variable renewables (solar, wind) need something to rise with it to fill the generation gap when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. In his final instalment - after his similarly detailed … [Read more...]
East Mediterranean gas finds: EU energy bonanza or geopolitical headache?
Some of the world’s largest natural gas reserves have been discovered off Cyprus. One of the questions being addressed at this year's CERA Week is, could these massive finds (totalling more than 70 trillion cubic feet!) be the answer to any perceived over-dependency on Russian gas imports to the EU? Maybe, maybe not. Geopolitical tussles could scupper the realisation of these much-needed resources for Europe. Whilst the potential is there, it may … [Read more...]
European Commission’s decision to approve Poland’s capacity mechanism challenged
Electricity generators can pitch for awards from governments operating capacity markets. Capacity markets establish a price (at auctions) for back-up power which may, or may not, be needed. Either way, the operator of the power plant gets paid for guaranteeing security of supply to the grid. Last year, the European Commission approved the Polish capacity market and, according to CAN Europe, in its first auction the Polish government awarded 22,4 … [Read more...]
Green Oil: second wave of investment in low-carbon assets is substantial but hardly tidal
Oil majors are under significant pressure from investors to develop climate-friendly business areas but less than 1.5% of their combined investment budgets is expected to go into low-carbon assets globally this year. However, 70% of that is set to come from European oil companies who are reacting positively to market signals by participating in coordinated industry schemes designed to help meet Paris targets. Here is an overview of some of the … [Read more...]
Transition: nation-by-nation review of race to phaseout coal
The global effort to phase out coal consumption is speeding up. However, a lot of necessary work is still to be done, both to align with the ambition of the Paris Agreement and to ensure a just transition for affected workers and citizens. Oliver Sartor at the IDDRI runs through the leading examples of coal's phase-out across the world, nation by nation, and warns that coal producing and consuming countries that do not adapt are in danger of … [Read more...]
Investing in gas: the effect of carbon taxes, gas prices, and the growth of renewables
Schalk Cloete presents his latest article looking at what affects the profitability of an investment in a specific power sector. After reviewing onshore wind, nuclear and solar, he now looks at gas. His analysis of coal is to come. The major variables are increasing CO2 prices, and natural gas pricing. He adds that the growth of wind and solar should benefit load-following gas power plants: they are plugging the intermittency gap when electricity … [Read more...]
IEEFA Germany: RWE’s coal phaseout compensation demands defy market prices
How much should the coal producers be compensated for Germany’s phaseout? RWE wants €1.2bn per GW at least, basing its maths on an EU-approved scheme from 2015. But Gerard Wynn, writing for IEEFA, says too much has changed since then, not least the Paris Agreement and the actual market price for coal assets. By his calculations, the true price should be under €100m per GW down to near zero. Vattenfall and Engie have already taken such a hit. … [Read more...]
Does the U.S. really need new gas infrastructure?
Gas prices within the U.S. vary considerably, largely due to poor local gas infrastructure: Boston’s gas prices can be triple New York’s, and Los Angeles’ over 50% higher than San Francisco’s. Should the U.S. spend billions upgrading that infrastructure? Not if money spent on assets that may one day be stranded is money wasted. Andrew Campbell, Executive Director of the Energy Institute at Haas at the University of California, says the best … [Read more...]
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