Russia normally exports 5m barrels of oil a day. Sanctions may now see Ukraine-supporting nations refuse to buy 3m of them. Can those nations cut their consumption by the same amount, immediately, and stop shortages and further price rises? Yes, says Lucas Davis at the Haas School of Business. Following the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the IEA has released a report “A 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use”, with ten ideas for immediate actions in advanced … [Read more...]
Will turning down Europe’s thermostats ease the Gas supply crisis?
To counter the extremely high gas prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis the IEA has proposed turning thermostats down in households to use less gas. The IEA estimated lowering the heating by just 1°C would reduce gas demand by around 10 bn cubic metres a year, or 7% of Europe’s annual imports from Russia. Aurore Julien at the University of East London looks at quantifiable past attempts around the world to get citizens to cut their energy … [Read more...]
Russia-Ukraine: Support for U.S. Oil & Gas producers must tie them to low-emissions investments
Like many countries, the U.S. is set to raise oil and gas production to compensate for cuts in Russian imports consequent to the war in Ukraine. The danger is that short-term solutions to sky rocketing fossil fuel prices will take precedence over climate targets. But Ben Cahill at CSIS explains how this is an opportunity for the Biden administration to give support to fossil energy producers with one hand and extract solid commitments on … [Read more...]
What can replace Russian gas: modelling Germany’s options on renewables, coal, nuclear, LNG, lowering thermostats
A sudden cut in Russian gas imports means Germany will have to cope with the loss of TWhs. How? Tobias Federico at Energy Brainpool wants decision-makers to get the facts straight. He uses modelling tools to answer this question that is causing fierce debate. The first thing to note is that the loss of gas TWhs (of the order of 100TWh) will be most felt in the provision of heat over winter. Heating systems mostly depends on gas, so intermittent … [Read more...]
Russia-Ukraine and Europe’s energy strategy: a snapshot of a fast-moving crisis
Every day brings news of how Europe’s energy policy is reacting to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It’s a big topic and fast moving. Helen Farrell gives a summary of the situation so far. She lists some of the major U-turns at both EU and national levels, the IEA’s ten-point recommendations, the feasibility and repercussions of cutting Russian fossil imports, the prospects for clean energy (solar, wind, nuclear, storage) and our net zero targets. … [Read more...]
What is Energy Security? And what it isn’t
What is energy security? That’s what Maximilian Auffhammer at the Energy Institute at Haas asks and tries to answer, and he starts by saying what it is not and what solutions should not be used. Not importing won’t help because prices are global. “Energy security” can’t be taxed as an externality for much the same reason. Subsidising high prices for consumers decreases the value of energy efficiency investments. Instead, Auffhammer says the … [Read more...]
Germany suspends Nord Stream 2: Q&A on what happens next
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany has suspended the go-ahead of the switch-on of Nord Stream 2, the new pipeline for Russian gas imports. What does this mean for the pipeline and Germany’s – and the EU’s – energy strategy? With events moving so rapidly, the full picture cannot be clear. So Kerstine Appunn, Benjamin Wehrmann and Julian Wettengel at Clean Energy Wire raise the big questions and summarise the answers being given. Those … [Read more...]
Russia-Ukraine crisis: Germany suspends Nord Stream 2
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has suspended the certification of Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline for importing gas from Russia, already built and waiting for approval for the taps to be turned on. The analysis of Germany’s security of supply, a key element of the certification, has been withdrawn and must now be reassessed. Opponents of Nord Stream 2 have always argued that – gas emissions apart – the threat of Russia reducing supply to exert … [Read more...]
Carbon Taxes have a multiplier effect on clean energy policies
President Biden’s Build Back Better package has already had to be cut back drastically. The climate part of the package is to halve the U.S.’s greenhouse gas pollution from its peak by 2030. Given the limitations on what Biden can do, will tax credits alone (favouring low-carbon solutions) achieve the target, asks Meredith Fowlie at the Energy Institute at Haas. She reviews papers that say it almost certainly won’t. However, the addition of a … [Read more...]
EU Taxonomy: labelling Gas “green” is a gift to Putin
Many of today’s clean energy technologies were given their first boost in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis, explains William Todts at T&E. He now hopes the current confrontation between NATO and Russia over Ukraine will shake up and deepen Europe’s commitment to the energy transition. But entirely the wrong signal was sent over the New Year, says Todts. He describes the European Commission’s inclusion of gas in the EU Taxonomy for sustainable … [Read more...]
Where can Europe get its Gas if Russia cuts off supplies?
What impact will the confrontation between Russia and NATO over Ukraine have on Europe’s energy security? Russia provides nearly half of Europe’s natural gas, and Moscow could tighten the flow if hostilities break out. If that happens, where would Europe get its gas from? Amy Jaffe at Tufts University looks at the constraints on global LNG supply (mainly liquification and regasification capacity), the global ability to redirect shipments to … [Read more...]
EU Taxonomy: why nations are backing Nuclear and Gas
The heated debates over the potential inclusion of nuclear power and natural gas in the EU taxonomy has again exposed the different interests of EU nations. Simon Göss at cr.hub, writing for Energy Brainpool, explains what parameters the EU taxonomy controls, what conditions are attached should the two technologies be classified as sustainable, as well as summarising those national interests and constraints. Critics say neither should be … [Read more...]
New York City to stop new buildings connecting to the Gas network
New York City is the U.S.’s largest metropolis, over twice the size of second spot Los Angeles, and is still growing. It has just passed a bill that effectively stops new buildings from hooking up to the gas network. The significance is not simply because of NYC’s global prominence, but because it gets very cold in winter with average temperatures just above freezing point. The move is a major win for the electrification of buildings. The … [Read more...]
U.S. shale production is rising. But by how much more, and how fast?
The dramatic increase in gas and electricity prices worldwide has raised concerns about energy security. It why U.S. shale production is rising. But by how much more, and how fast? Ben Cahill at CSIS looks at lessons learned over the last ten years by the sector to understand the drivers. Previously, shale firms grew so fast that many investors lost a lot of money. Then, the 2020 oil shock imposed discipline and firms preserved cash, but that … [Read more...]
Gas Crunch: time to factor in volatility and externalities to reveal its true costs
The current gas price shock (and any future ones) raises the question: if we had invested more in renewables, efficiency, buildings renovation, and green gases, would we be actually saving money instead of losing it? Looking at the EU, Dolf Gielen, Michael Taylor and Barbara Jinks at IRENA urge governments to do something they’ve not done before and factor in the negative impacts of volatile fossil fuel prices. Moreover, they should calculate the … [Read more...]
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