Whatever the G7 does, the objective is to cut revenues flowing into Russia, not oil flowing out. And whatever the sanctions, getting compliance from neutral and pro-Russian countries will need a strong positive incentive. Hence the idea of a price cap which would keep prices low. Here, three experts – Edward Fishman and Brian O’Toole at the Atlantic Council, and Mark Mozur at S&P Global Commodity Insights (with background by Atlantic … [Read more...]
Imposing a $50/barrel tariff on Russian oil is the best sanction
Is there a way to impose sanctions on Russia that cuts its revenues without causing fossil fuel prices to balloon? The current strategy has seen oil prices rise to $120/barrel by mid-June, so although volumes are down Russia has seen no reduction in revenues. In other words, it has not achieved its objective, says Edward Chow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Instead, he argues for imposing a big import tariff – like … [Read more...]
If Russia cuts its gas supplies to Germany, what happens next?
Replacing Russian pipeline gas to Europe in the short term is much more difficult than finding alternative sources for coal and oil. It’s why the EU hasn’t banned Russian gas. But what if Russia cuts off the supply? Benjamin Wehrmann at Clean Energy Wire looks at what the consequences and options are for Germany. Though Germany aims to wean itself off Russian supplies almost entirely by 2024, a sudden cut would have serious consequences. Storage … [Read more...]
EU’s latest sanctions on Russian Oil: what are they and will it work?
On June 3, the EU agreed an embargo on Russian crude oil and petroleum products. Ben Cahill at the Center for Strategic and International Studies looks at the details of the latest sanctions imposed in response to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and assesses the possible consequences. The aim is to cut oil imports from Russia by 90 percent by February 2023. A critical part of the sanctions is a ban on providing shipping insurance to Russian … [Read more...]
Net-zero targets delayed by fossil fuel investors suing governments
As nations try to phase out fossil fuels, companies are suing them for compensation. Rachel Thrasher at Boston University, Blake Simmons at Colorado State University and Kyla Tienhaara at Queen's University (Ontario) summarise their latest study of the scale of the payouts. The cases are based on treaties – the Energy Charter Treaty being the most significant - that allow investors to sue governments when policy changes overturn their … [Read more...]
Seven ways for the U.S. and Europe to enhance energy security and advance climate goals
Ending reliance on Russian fossil exports will need the U.S. and Europe to work together, explain Joseph Majkut, Nikos Tsafos and Ben Cahill at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The U.S. is the world’s largest oil and gas producer and is able to increase output. At the same time, it must meet global emissions targets. The way to do it is to increase fossil exports temporarily whilst improving its carbon reduction measures (e.g. … [Read more...]
Europe must simultaneously replace Russia’s fossil exports and accelerate its clean energy deployment
The Ukraine crisis has had an immediate impact on Europe’s strategy for energy supply security. And this week’s sudden halting of gas supplies by Russia to Poland and Bulgaria only emphasises the urgency. Dolf Gielen, Ricardo Gorini, Luis Janeiro and Seán Collins at IRENA look at the best options, basing their findings on their latest “World Energy Transitions Outlook”, published in March, that lays out a routemap for the next eight years for … [Read more...]
How could Germany wind down Russian oil imports by the end of 2022
Berlin has said that, though difficult, it could become independent of Russian oil imports by the end of 2022, with a target of halving them by the middle of the year. Kerstine Appunn at Clean Energy Wire compiles information on the practical challenges for Germany’s oil infrastructure, refineries and security of supply. Germany is serviced by three pipeline systems for the west, the east and the south of the country. But they are not connected … [Read more...]
Europe’s long-term energy security: do not become dependent on “green” Russia’s future LNG and Hydrogen exports
It’s not enough for Europe to cut Russian energy imports without a plan to make the change endure, says Leslie Palti-Guzman writing for the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center. Boycotts and divestments usually have expiry dates. What’s more, Russia will be proactive in driving its export capabilities to make them commercially attractive in the post-war world. Russia plans expanding LNG shipments from its Yamal Peninsular, as well as getting … [Read more...]
Q&A: How fast can renewables deliver on Germany’s new energy independence goals?
How quickly can Germany reduce its dependence on fossil fuels? Benjamin Wehrmann at Clean Energy Wire asks six practical questions that must be answered, then gathers the expert answers. What are the current expansion goals for wind, solar and other renewables? Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will the new emergency plans bring an end to Russian imports as well as reach climate targets? Are renewable power companies ready to deliver a fast … [Read more...]
Fossil Fuel divestment is premature: instead, enable investment to keep prices low, and tax consumption
We need to shift investment from fossil fuels to other climate-friendly energy sources, but it must be done more intelligently than we’re doing it today, says Schalk Cloete. The rapid global economic development needed to uplift the 86% of the world’s population currently living below $1,000/month is inextricably linked to the continued and timely growth in an abundant supply of affordable energy. It would be unjust – and probably futile – to … [Read more...]
Price volatility and greenwashing: do Gas and LNG make economic or climate sense?
While governments urgently rethink their gas policies, Christina Ng and Sam Reynolds at IEEFA summarise the evidence against the claim that gas and LNG can be green and have a sound economic future. Firstly, most measurements of emissions do not include the full life-cycle of production. For LNG that includes extraction, transport, liquefaction, and re-gasification. They point at studies that say it can be almost as much as the emissions produced … [Read more...]
Lower driving speeds + more: behaviour change can make up for 2.7m barrels/day loss of Russian oil imports
Russia normally exports 5m barrels of oil a day. Sanctions may now see Ukraine-supporting nations refuse to buy 3m of them. Can those nations cut their consumption by the same amount, immediately, and stop shortages and further price rises? Yes, says Lucas Davis at the Haas School of Business. Following the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the IEA has released a report “A 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use”, with ten ideas for immediate actions in advanced … [Read more...]
Will turning down Europe’s thermostats ease the Gas supply crisis?
To counter the extremely high gas prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis the IEA has proposed turning thermostats down in households to use less gas. The IEA estimated lowering the heating by just 1°C would reduce gas demand by around 10 bn cubic metres a year, or 7% of Europe’s annual imports from Russia. Aurore Julien at the University of East London looks at quantifiable past attempts around the world to get citizens to cut their energy … [Read more...]
Russia-Ukraine: Support for U.S. Oil & Gas producers must tie them to low-emissions investments
Like many countries, the U.S. is set to raise oil and gas production to compensate for cuts in Russian imports consequent to the war in Ukraine. The danger is that short-term solutions to sky rocketing fossil fuel prices will take precedence over climate targets. But Ben Cahill at CSIS explains how this is an opportunity for the Biden administration to give support to fossil energy producers with one hand and extract solid commitments on … [Read more...]
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