Renewable electricity generation in the U.S. has risen so fast in the last 10 years that it’s expected to surpass coal by 2021, according to the latest report from the nation’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). This would have been “unthinkable” in 2010, says Dennis Wamsted at IEEFA. Back then, nationwide, utility-scale solar generated 1.29bn kWh and wind 94.6bn kWh. By 2021 solar will have risen almost a hundredfold to 122bn kWh and wind … [Read more...]
Oil & Gas’s future: diversify into clean electricity, new fuels, says IEA
The oil and gas industry is not doing nearly enough to meet Transition targets, says the IEA. Only 1% is invested in non-core activities. That needs to rise to 15% within 10 years. The IEA’s article summarises their comprehensive report “The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions”, released this month. It explains how the industry’s existing skills and “deep pockets” make them ideally placed to invest in low-carbon fuels (Hydrogen, … [Read more...]
Gas infrastructure leaks methane: fix it, or accelerate to clean energy
Natural gas, because it’s low-carbon, is being used as a bridge fuel away from the old fossil fuel world. But there are two main problems. The infrastructure leaks methane (the main component of the gas) which is 25 times more potent than CO2 over a 100-year period (and 86 times over a 20-year period!). And, crucially, nobody is properly measuring those leaks. That means policy makers are growing the gas mix without knowing by how much it’s … [Read more...]
What can Oil producers learn from a sunset Coal industry?
Although fossil fuels are being replaced by clean energy they are not going away. Even coal is not in decline, it’s just peaked globally: declining in mature economies, still rising in developing ones. Henning Gloystein at the Eurasia Group, writing for the Atlantic Council, asks to what extent oil will follow coal. Oil consumption is still growing – 1% this year - though at a much slower rate than before. As with coal, a re-focus onto cleaner … [Read more...]
Fossil fuel politics is changing: Big Oil, automakers split on Trump lowering standards
Cara Daggett at Virginia Tech has noticed a positive change in corporate support for the Transition. In the past, Big Oil and automakers would have opposed any limits to business-as-usual. But today, major oil companies, including BP and Royal Dutch Shell, are opposing U.S. President Trump’s intention to further deregulate methane emissions. That’s because they’ve invested heavily in natural gas as a bridge fuel for a clean future, which would … [Read more...]
Why renewables need gas: case study USA
Everyone is predicting the continued expansion of gas through to 2050. Jim Conca reviews the state of play in the U.S. to explain why that projection makes sense. The welcome and rapid growth of renewables still needs something to provide backup load-following to a growing and increasingly intermittent electric grid. Gas is the cheapest to roll out and can keep prices low for decades. The other two contenders, hydro and nuclear, just can’t match … [Read more...]
The rapid liberalisation of China’s domestic gas market
China’s coal-to-gas ambitions are driving big changes to its internal gas markets, says a report “China’s Quest for Blue Skies: The Astonishing Transformation of the Domestic Gas Market” by the IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate, authored by Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe. To cope with a doubling of gas demand by 2030, market reforms are liberalising the downstream gas market. Nobody wants a repeat of the winter shortages of 2017-18. And air … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 3 of 5): fossil fuels
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technology, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. Cloete reminds us that fossil fuels did not reach their dominant … [Read more...]
TurkStream disruption: Turkey, Greece can become new gas hubs
For over 30 years the Trans-Balkan pipeline has been used to pump Russian gas to southeast Europe. But Russia’s construction of the new TurkStream pipelines can open the door for the Trans-Balkan to be re-purposed, explains Aura Sabadus writing for the Atlantic Council. Going forward, LNG can be imported into Turkey and Greece and pumped back up the same pipes to serve the region, reducing dependence on Russian gas. However, such a plan would … [Read more...]
EU policing of Member State gas plans not consistent
Elisa Giannelli at E3G explains why the European Commission’s assessment of Member States’ natural gas plans is not consistent, on three fronts. Firstly, with its own EU climate targets: many nations are planning to increase their consumption of and investment in gas regardless of EU-wide targets to cut emissions. Secondly, the Commission is critical of some of these nations but actually supportive of others. Thirdly, even the EU’s own policies … [Read more...]
China’s quest for gas security is reshaping the global LNG market
In just two years, China has become the world’s top gas importer and should soon become the largest importer of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). But that growing import dependency, domestic winter supply concerns, and the trade war with the U.S. means the Chinese government is reinforcing its gas supply policy, says a report "China’s Quest for Gas Supply Security: The Global Implications" by the IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate, authored by … [Read more...]
UK fracking earthquakes: why the world’s “toughest” safety rules failed to predict them
In August this year Lancashire experienced the largest fracking-induced earthquake recorded in the UK. Fracking was suspended. Legislators discussed a complete ban. As a result, serious questions are being asked about the effectiveness of the safety regulations, given the operating company, Cuadrilla, predicted there was a “low-likelihood” of such events occurring. And given the UK’s “traffic light system” (TLS) is the most stringent TLS in the … [Read more...]
The Balkans’ biggest power station – why thinking beyond Maritsa East 2 matters
By energy lawyers Dominique Doyle (ClientEarth) and Regina Stoilova (Za Zemiata Access to Justice) In Bulgaria’s Stara Zagora region, the Balkans’ biggest coal plant chugs steadily away, part of a giant industrial complex. Maritsa East 2’s reputation is as a provider of jobs and stability. The cloud of pollution that hangs over the region – and the cloud of uncertainty that hangs over its future – go largely undiscussed. The plant’s … [Read more...]
Peak coal on the horizon: a country-by-country review
Though the global coal fleet still increased by 17GW in the first half of 2019, net of retirements, the pipeline is definitely shrinking. Two thirds of proposed projects never even get started. Notably, in China existing coal plants have been running, on average, only 50% of the time since 2015, evidence of a large excess of capacity. But is it enough? The IPCC’s pathway to 1.5C requires unabated coal power generation to fall by 55-70% by 2030 … [Read more...]
Cybersecurity: the knock-on cost of digital efficiency
The oil and gas market slump of 2015 brought extra pressure to bear on majors to reduce their breakeven barrel price. The quest for deeper efficiencies included a tidal shift toward digitalisation. According to Gaurav Sharma, vulnerable systems are in urgent need of upgrading and require constant protection at an estimated cost of $40 billion plus per annum. With existential external factors already putting the squeeze on investment, the growing … [Read more...]
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