We need to cut global methane emissions from fossil fuels by 75% by 2030 to be on target to limit warming to 1.5°C. That equates to 90 Mt of the current total of 120 Mt of annual fossil fuel methane emissions. The IEA says 80 Mt can be avoided through the deployment of known and existing technologies, often at low – or even negative – cost. And the 75% cut needs $170bn in spending to 2030, a very achievable sum given it represents less than 5% of … [Read more...]
Hydrogen: most nations’ plans to export to Europe don’t match reality. The EU should make it itself
The EU’s RePowerEU plan, quickly made in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, aims to produce 20m tonnes of renewable hydrogen by 2030, with half coming from imports. Here, T&E summarise their report that concludes this is unrealistic. The report looks at six key countries with plans to export hydrogen to the EU: Norway, Chile, Egypt, Morocco, Namibia and Oman. T&E says these countries combined would only be able to deliver a quarter … [Read more...]
Investing billions in new cross-border Electricity Transmission capacity can cover its costs within a few years
The huge divergence of electricity prices between nations after the energy crises of 2021 and 2022 exposed Europe’s pressing need to increase cross-border transmission capacity, explain George Dimopoulos, Conall Heussaff and Georg Zachmann at Bruegel. Without it, generation costs will be higher, emissions too, and new generation will continue to be badly congested. The author’s calculations reveal that one additional MW of cross-border capacity … [Read more...]
Can we expect Gas price volatility and spikes this winter? Why?
Europe has done well in pivoting away from Russian gas imports. After painful energy prices rises in 2022 they have fallen steadily this year. LNG imports and the infrastructure to support them is growing. And Europe’s gas storage levels hit 90% capacity three months ahead of the November target. But the challenge is far from over, explains Michael Bradshaw at Warwick Business School. European gas prices remain 50% above their pre-invasion … [Read more...]
Norway’s Sleipner and Snøhvit CCS: problems expose limitations of the science, regulations and multi-decade commitment
The offshore carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects of Norway’s Sleipner and Snøhvit are often cited as good case studies for the viability of the technology. Other CCS hubs are being proposed from Malaysia to the North Sea to the Gulf of Mexico, larger by factors of 10 or more. But how viable are they? Grant Hauber at IEEFA summarises his in-depth report on the risks. Both Sleipner and Snøhvit, operating since 1996 and 2008 respectively, have … [Read more...]
IEA’s new CCUS projects database: a tool for driving much needed progress
The IEA has made available for the first time its CCUS projects database. The number of countries with plans to develop CCUS now stands at 45, with seven more countries - in central and southern Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia – joining the list in 2022. The database covers CO2 capture, transport, storage, and utilisation projects worldwide commissioned since the 1970s, and have an announced capacity of more than 100,000 tonnes/year … [Read more...]
Analysis: U.S. IRA subsidies put two-thirds of Europe’s battery production pipeline at risk
Major battery manufacturing projects earmarked for Europe are now looking to site themselves in the U.S. to take advantage of its IRA subsidies, according to a new report by T&E. It says over two-thirds of lithium-ion battery production planned for Europe – a pipeline potential of 1.8 TWh - is now at risk of being delayed, scaled down or cancelled. The nations most at risk of losing the business are Germany, Hungary, Spain, Italy, the UK and … [Read more...]
Germany is developing a strategy for Carbon Capture and Storage to meet its 2045 net zero target
Germany cannot become carbon neutral by 2045 without carbon capture, explains Simon Göss at carboneer. It’s why the German government is developing a Carbon Management Strategy for CO2 storage and utilisation. Projections reveal that around 30m tons of CO2 will have to be captured, transported, reused or disposed of by 2045. The focus will be on industrial processes and waste. Göss lays out the background to Germany’s strategy, including possible … [Read more...]
European gas prices have fallen sharply since August. What happens next?
Prices on the European gas market have fallen sharply since August 2022 and Europe’s gas storage facilities are almost full. That’s good news, but the problems aren’t over. Simon Göss at cr.hub, writing for Energy Brainpool, explains why by looking at the data. He runs through the main factors driving the changes, primarily strong LNG imports, Norway’s increased production, mild weather, and lower gas consumption (particularly in industry). … [Read more...]
Fossil fuel producers can decarbonise by exporting Electricity, Hydrogen, and Steel
The compelling reason why fossil fuel producers will be needed even beyond 2050 is that they currently provide over 80% of global energy, and 90% of the world’s population still needs the wealth creation that energy delivers, says Schalk Cloete. Given that, he summarises his co-authored paper that takes a close look at how a fossil exporter, Norway, can trade with an importer, Germany, while decarbonising. The modelling focusses on electricity … [Read more...]
Do e-bike subsidies lift sales, change habits and cut emissions?
What happened when Sweden introduced a 25% rebate on the cost of an e-bike for 12 months over 2017-18? Lucas Davis at the Haas School of Business reviews a study that digs into the consequences. Sales increased by 70%. E-bike prices remained steady, so the sellers didn’t simply raise prices to eat up the rebate. The study estimates that although a third of those sales would have “happened anyway” (i.e. no additionality) the remaining two-thirds … [Read more...]
Yamal-Europe gas pipeline shows how EU competition rules backfire during a shortage
Europe’s gas deficit has concentrated minds on the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline which runs from Russia to Germany via Belarus and Poland, built in the 1990s. Andrei Belyi at the University of Eastern Finland explains how the rules for booking capacity worked well during times when gas was in plentiful supply, but now works against Europe’s gas security since the shortages emerged in September. The rules are designed to maximise competition between … [Read more...]
Will this be the decade of Carbon Capture or another false start?
Ten years ago there was a major drive to get carbon capture off the ground. But only 30% of the earmarked $8.5bn worldwide was ever spent. Spending timescales were too short, deadlines were missed, projects were too focussed and too complex, and long-term liability was poorly understood and managed. This time it can be different, says Samantha McCulloch at the IEA who compares that faltering history with the plans now being put in place. New … [Read more...]
Will Norway’s new government consider phasing out oil and gas?
A Labour-led left coalition won the Norwegian elections in September. The Socialist Left Party looks keen to limit new oil and gas exploration and production. The dominant Labour Party and the Center party, much less so. Still, it could be the moment when Norway starts to put the climate above its oil and gas policy, explains Silje Lundberg at Oil Change International. Until now – left or right - it’s definitely been the other way around. The … [Read more...]
Europe’s Carbon Capture pipeline: 40+ projects. But where’s the policy support and market creation?
13 different European countries have announced more than 40 carbon capture projects. Most are yet to become operational, but the commitment from the private sector – ranging from new players to established energy and industry majors – is clear. Now is the time for governments to create for CCUS the kind of policies that accelerated the growth of wind and solar, says Lee Beck at the Clean Air Task Force. Norway and the Netherlands are taking those … [Read more...]