A great deal of the cost reductions in wind energy have come, pure and simply, from bigger turbines. Their rotors have a greater swept area and access higher wind speeds at elevated heights. But there are practical limits to the size these blades can reach. Challenges include weight, fatigue, manufacturing, reliability, transport and logistics. To push the boundaries of design, teams from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy … [Read more...]
2019-2024: competitive auctions will launch over 2/3rds of utility-scale renewables, says IEA
Government support for new utility-scale capacity is being replaced with competitive auctions, the surest sign that the commercial appetite for renewables - particularly solar PV and onshore wind - is growing strong. This article by the IEA pulls out the essential numbers from their annual Renewables 2019 report (their 5-year market analysis and forecast for renewable energy and technologies in the electricity, heat and transport sectors). The … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 v the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 to compare with this year’s IEA World Energy Outlook, published mid-November. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another, like a very high carbon tax) in 2030: in his opinion it will be the best way to accelerate the transition to meet the Paris goals as the 1.5°C … [Read more...]
Better grid integration beats coal plant ramping to reduce wind, solar curtailment
Wind and solar curtailment is worst where these renewables are poorly integrated into the grid. The further their energy can reach the more regions they can service, thus minimising curtailment. If they don’t reach far, local coal plants must ramp down - but only if they’ve been retrofitted to be able to do so. It’s a problem faced by many countries: spend money on the retrofits or the integration? Writing for the Regulatory Assistance Project … [Read more...]
German Onshore Wind hit by residential regulations: will new profit-share rules help?
5.3 GW of newly installed capacity in 2017, 2.4 GW in 2018, 0.5 GW in the first nine months of 2019. Germany’s onshore wind power expansion has seen a dramatic slump. That’s completely against the trend in total renewables growth which saw its share of gross power consumption reached a record of almost 43% in 2019, up 5% on the previous year. Clearly, onshore wind is facing obstacles the other technologies aren’t, and that is the rules around how … [Read more...]
Creating a market to trade excess wind/solar between states (without outsourcing your emissions!)
How do you get neighbouring states, with different renewables mixes, and different emissions targets and penalties, to trade their surplus energy? It’s one of the biggest challenges to face the rapid growth of intermittent wind and solar. Meredith Fowlie at the Energy Institute at Haas describes how an “Energy Imbalance Market” (EIM) is operating across eight states in the west of the U.S. Bidding for your neighbour’s excess renewable energy is … [Read more...]
Offshore Wind: a new source of clean energy for Asia?
Offshore wind is seeing the same dramatic cost reductions as solar and onshore wind. Though still more expensive, it’s heading towards $60/MWh parity with them across Europe. The U.S., China and Taiwan are also experiencing impressive drops. It’s why global capacity nearly doubled in three years from 12GW in December 2015 to 23GW by the end of 2018. IEEFA’s briefing note “Offshore Wind Ready to Be Key Part of Energy Mix Globally – Top European … [Read more...]
Why renewables need gas: case study USA
Everyone is predicting the continued expansion of gas through to 2050. Jim Conca reviews the state of play in the U.S. to explain why that projection makes sense. The welcome and rapid growth of renewables still needs something to provide backup load-following to a growing and increasingly intermittent electric grid. Gas is the cheapest to roll out and can keep prices low for decades. The other two contenders, hydro and nuclear, just can’t match … [Read more...]
1.2TW: cost reductions, policy advances will drive 50% renewables growth to 2024, says IEA
Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans runs through their analysis of the updated forecasts in the International Energy Agency (IEA) Renewables 2019 report, released this week. In its “base case” global renewable energy capacity will increase by 50% over 6 years. Rising from 2,501GW in 2018 to 3,721GW in 2024, it will add the equivalent of the entire US electricity system. In the “accelerated case” it’s 60%, further adding the equivalent of Japan’s. 85% of … [Read more...]
Germany 2021: when fixed feed-in tariffs end, how will renewables fare?
Starting in 2021 many of Germany’s existing “pioneer” wind turbines, solar PV installations and biogas plants – launched with generous price guarantees - will stop receiving fixed feed-in tariffs. That means renewable capacity may be shut down if they can’t find a new business model to run on. The new rules comes at a decisive time for Germany’s energy transition as it tries to increase renewables to meet emissions targets and gradually increase … [Read more...]
India: coal plummets, renewables stepping in
In 2018, 80% of India’s total energy lending went to renewables. Coal got the rest, a major fall compared to 2017. No wonder, given coal plants have been running at below 60% utilisation for two years with the operators suffering huge losses. Renewables are now undercutting coal and getting cheaper. And shortages in water – needed for plant cooling – just add to their woes. Vibhuti Garg at IEEFA catalogues the problems, then describes the … [Read more...]
Women facing barriers in the renewables workforce
Gender discrimination always matters. It should matter even more to the new green economy. Justice aside, barriers against half the workforce limit your talent pool. For a sector where "business as usual" guarantees failure we need to ensure the fairest selection processes from the widest possible pool as new jobs are created every day. But today’s energy sector has a bigger role to play. Energy is now arguably the 21st century’s “sector of … [Read more...]
Wind farms for cyclone zones: new standards and designs
Wind turbine designs and standards have been developed with today’s major markets in mind, Europe and North America. However, the bulk of future markets are expected to be in geographic areas where the meteorological and environmental conditions are much more extreme. Think cyclones, heavy rain and lightning. IRENA estimates that Asia will lead in onshore wind installations with over half of the total global capacity installed (>2,600 GW) by … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 2 of 5): wind and solar
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. Many of his assumptions are different from the big institutions, not least that technology-neutrality will be widely adopted as the best policy, as carbon budgets are exhausted around 2030. There are other big differences too. He starts with wind and solar, two technologies that the IEA and … [Read more...]
2018 investment in renewables 12% down on 2017
At $272.9bn, 2018 investment in renewables capacity was 12% down on the previous year. Despite this, renewables’ investment was three times the total for coal and gas-fired generation capacity combined in 2018. Over the last decade, $2.6tn was invested in renewables (half going to solar), quadrupling capacity to 1,650GW. Consequently, renewables’ share of electricity generation reached 12.9%, up from 11.6% in 2017. This avoided an estimated 2bn … [Read more...]
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