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Will Merkel and Macron give a boost to EU climate policy?
Five things that should have happened at the recent climate conference in Bonn, didnāt happen, write Marc Hudson and Matthew Paterson of the University of Manchester. But there is life beyond the UNFCCC process. They identify five things to watch for in climate policy in the coming year ā if it isnāt too late already to save the world from climate change. Courtesy The Conversation.
Unusually for a large UN climate conference, theĀ recent Bonn talksĀ didnāt finish with any late-night haggling. Progress, in the form of various commitments and pledges, is best described asĀ slow and steady.
Ahead of the conference, we made five suggestions ofĀ things that should happen but probably wouldnāt. They were: ditch fossil fuels entirely, pledge more aggressive emissions cuts, a big increase in climate funds for developing countries, rapid agreement on rules for implementing the Paris Agreement and that āfantasy technologiesā that take carbon out of the atmosphere would be exposed as wishful thinking.
Weāll look at how the conference did against our five proposed metrics, discuss āwhat nextā for the UNās climate process ahead of next yearās meeting, and then suggest five other things to keep a climate-related eye on.
- Enough with the oil, coal and gas already
Well, there was fun news when the sole US event saw an executive from coal giant Peabody argue for āclean coalā. The audienceĀ sang a protest songĀ and many then walked out.
The major headline was the launch of the āPowering Past Coal Allianceā, led by the UK and Canada, with pledges by Mexico, New Zealand, Denmark and Angola, among others ā 20 countries in all. This alliance pledged to phase out all coal-fired electricity (except that with Carbon Capture and Storage), although without a clear target date. Sceptics rightly point out thatĀ these countries werenāt burning much coal anywayand will continue to burn other fossil fuels.
This last point stuck in the craw of Friends of the Earth UK, who pointed out that the UK is simultaneously giving the green light to fracking, a whole new fossil fuel industry which, despite the gas industryās claims, isĀ not compatible with climate commitments.
- Sharpen the teeth of the pledges
Didnāt happen (that sound is the authors sighing smugly but wearily). The issue āflared upā, and was defused with a promise of aĀ āstock-takeā of action over the next two years.
- Show us the money
Also didnāt happen. Indeed, climate finance caused such conflict that thingsĀ threatened to boil overĀ and cause the talks to collapse entirely. The poorer countries wanted to know what they will get and when (to help with planning). According to a Guardian report, the richer countries professed that they wereĀ not unwilling, but that making promises on behalf of future governments is legally complex.
- Clarify the rules
This also didnāt happen (thereās a pattern emerging, no?). There is now whatĀ Damian Carrington of the GuardianĀ characterises as a
skeleton: a set of headings relating to how action on emissions is reported and monitored. Nations have also fleshed this out with suggested detailed texts, but these are often contradictory and will need to be resolved next year.
There will now beĀ an additional meeting in 2018 before the next COPĀ to make sure the Paris rule book gets finished on time.
- Fantasy technologies are exposed as delusions
Nope. While the Powering Past Coal people pledged,Ā four events promoting carbon capture and storageĀ were held over a three-day period. Meanwhile other issues, such as oceans, adaptation, and loss and damage have ādrifted into obscurityā.
What next?
Everyone has their own opinions onĀ what needs to happen over the next year, in the lead up to COP24 in Poland.
There will be the āTalanoa dialogueā ā named after a traditional word used in Fiji and the Pacific to reflect aĀ process of inclusive, participatory and transparent dialogueĀ ā around how everyone is doing on their long-term commitments. Meanwhile, next September will see the launch of anĀ IPCC reportĀ on what would need to be done to limit global warming to 1.5ā (hint: change some laws ā primarily laws of physics).
Five things to watch for in the coming year
But there is life beyond the official UNFCCC process. Here are five things to watch for:
- Will US states and cities put their money where their mouths are?Ā As part of āAmericaās Pledgeā, 20 US states, more than 50 of its largest cities and more than 60 of its biggest businessesĀ have committed to emissions-reduction goals. If this materialises, it could negate Trumpās āfossil fuels foreverā strategy.
- What happens with the EU?Ā The German chancellor, Angela Merkel ā criticised by George Monbiot as āthe worldās leading eco-vandalā due to a series of industry-friendly interventions ā hasĀ teamed up with Emmanuel Macronto reform the much-criticised EU Emissions Trading Scheme. At the same time, European strategy may be compromised ā not only by Brexit, but by the vacuum of aĀ potential post-Merkel eraĀ of German leadership. Meanwhile, will theĀ āEurope Beyond Coalā campaignĀ score big wins?
- China (of course)Ā The Chinese didnāt makeĀ an expected announcementon their own emissions trading scheme at Bonn, butĀ itās coming soon. Meanwhile, anĀ influential Chinese advisory bodyĀ is pushing for no new coal plants to be approved, alongside aĀ boost to the official 2020 solar target. China, it seems, isĀ leading the renewables revolution.
- Coalās death spiralĀ With encouragement fromĀ US billionaire Michael Bloomberg, moreĀ organisations will divestfrom coal,Ā accelerating its decline, with renewables increasing their market share (from a very low baseline). The announcements from the Powering Past Coal Alliance might help nudge this further.
- Physical impactsĀ EmissionsĀ are climbing again, after a reported plateau. The ArcticĀ is warming upfaster thanĀ climate models had predicted, and theĀ Australian summer may be unusually warm and dry.
So we can no doubt expect to see more articles which ask how we can make the most of things if indeed āit is too lateā to save the world from climate change.
Editorās Note
Matthew Paterson is Professor of International Politics at the University of Manchester. Marc Hudson is a Ph.D. candidate at the Sustainable Consumption Institute at the University of Manchester.
This article was first published on The Conversation and is republished here under a Creative Commons licence and with permission from the authors.
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