The German Energiewende cannot serve as a model for other countries. It is a threat to European security of supply, will have a negative impact on German growth prospects in the short term and is too costly. That’s the opinion of a majority of experts from 35 member organisations of the World Energy Council from across the world.Â
The Energiewende is not a great export product, at least according to the German committee of the World Energy Council (WEC). The “Weltenergierat Deutschland” conducted a survey among the Chairmen of the more than 90 member national Member Committees of WEC. 35 Chairmen responded, including 20 from European countries and 15 from countries outside of Europe. Only a third of the respondents said they believe the Energiewende can serve as “a global energy policy blueprint”. Almost half of the respondents reject the proposal of the Energiewende completely.
The World Energy Council, founded in 1923, is a global network which calls itself “the world’s principal network of energy leaders and practitioners” and may be said to represent mainstream opinion in the energy sector. The German WEC Committee notes that “the world has a sobering perspective on the German Energiewende”. In the international perpection, “the Energiewende will only be partly realised and with delays”, notes Dr Uwe Franke, president of the Weltenergierat Deutschland. “For many countries, the German model is too expensive.”
The survey found that the Energiewende is closely observed throughout the world and has triggered many national debates on energy policy. But none of the 35 respondents believed the concept could be fully copied in their countries. Half of them believed parts could be copied, the other half even believed no part of the Energiewende could serve as a model for them. They were especially negative on the phaseout of nuclear power stations. The expansion of renewable energy and higher energy efficiency were regarded more positively.
European respondents are more positive about the Energiewende than non-European ones. While two-thirds of the European respondents could imagine implementing certain aspects of the German energy policy, two thirds of respondents outside Europe completely reject the model. Interestingly, a reduction of primary energy demand by 2050, an essential feature of the Energiewende, is regarded as impossible by respondents outside of Europe.
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Fully three-quarters of the respondents consider the Energiewende a threat to European security of energy supply. For European respondents, this figure was 80%. The Europeans were also sceptical about the results of the Energiewende. Almost two thirds doubt that Germany will reach its CO2 reduction target of 40% in 2020. Most also expect a negative short-term impact on the German economy, although more than half believed the economy would be strengthened by the Energiewende in the long term.
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Mike Parr says
Dr Uwe Franke, ex-CEO of BP Europa SE until April 2012.
Given the above, the comments of the good Dr fall rather well into place. Apart from the “they won’t make 40%” (I have data showing that yes they will) the comments are mostly assertions and devoid of data. This is as I would expect from critics that attempt a framing exercise. Sadly, for those of us better informed, we know that the energiewende has done well and will do better.
Adriaan Kamp says
Given the urgent, serious and important need for a Rapid Energy Transition (or EnergieWende) in a wider world and sustainability setting, a sobering article- with a couple of urgent and important messages for those who care, and those who understand:
1. To my mind, and by virtue of the answers given, the WEC experts and chairs are dis-qualifying themselves as a serious party in our quest to attain sustainable societies – fuelled by sustainable energy architectures.
2. The world of energy, in all it’s traditions and conservatism- does need urgently a better, new and fresh co-alition of world experts or “centre of expertise” (our proposed House of Energy) and which can and will steer and enable that countries adopt a much more positive progressive outlook on subject material.
Our practice is ready and willing to do so- and to organize with the UN SDSN, and to help to bring the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals into reality.
The good news is: I know that within the energy profession- we are convinced we can.
AK