Another oil price downturn threatens to deepen the plunging levels of investment in upstream oil and gas production, which could create a more acute price spike in the years ahead, writes Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com. Analysts are not expecting a rebalancing of the market until 2018, but according to Cunningham, the swing from surplus to deficit could be more dramatic than many think. … [Read more...]
Higher natural gas prices ahead in US after record demand and lower production
Gas production in the US is falling for the first time in years. At the same time, the US power sector is burning more natural gas than ever. This means gas prices are likely to rise this coming winter, writes Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com. … [Read more...]
Iraq: what happened to the oil after the war?
Oil accounts for 99% of Iraq’s government revenue – and the country has the largest unexplored oil reserves in the world. But the future of the Iraqi oil sector is uncertain, with a National Hydrocarbon Law still awaiting parliamentary approval nine years after it was drawn up, writes Robert Smith, Lecturer in International Relations at Coventry University. According to Smith, the chaos in the sector mirrors the chaos in the new state that the US … [Read more...]
Hooked! Our addiction to fossil fuels must be fought in the way we tackled smoking and drugsÂ
Analysts such as those from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) see no signs of a determined move away from fossil fuels, writes energy expert and author Michael Klare. According to Klare, success in any global drive to avert climate catastrophe will involve tackling addictive behavior at its roots and promoting lasting changes in lifestyle. To do that, it will be necessary to learn from the anti-drug and anti-tobacco communities about … [Read more...]
Europe increasingly dependent on oil imports, above all from Russia
European dependence on oil imports has grown from 76% in 2000 to over 88% in 2014. The EU spends some €215 bn on oil imports, over 5 times as much as gas imports (€40 bn). Russia is the biggest supplier: dependence on Russia has grown from 22% in 2001 to 30% in 2015.  These are some of the main conclusions of a study from Cambridge Econometrics made for the Brussels-based NGO Transport & Environment (T&E). … [Read more...]
Oil companies and climate change: their assets are not at risk, their long-term business model is
Global warming has fundamentally changed the business environment for oil companies, writes geophysicist Jilles van den Beukel (ex-Shell). But they will not sink under “stranded assets” or a “carbon bubble”, as some environmentalists claim. Such notions, argues Van den Beukel, are based on a lack of understanding of the value of different types of reserves. It is rather their long-term business model that is at stake. And there is probably not … [Read more...]
Natural gas vehicle sales in US sag but prospects still good
The market for natural gas vehicles in the US took a small hit last year, as a result of low oil prices. Nevertheless, sales of CNG and LNG powered vehicles continue to be significant and the number of filling stations continues to grow, writes Frank Swigonski, Associate at Advanced Energy Economy, a US business assocation that promotes clean energy. Courtesy Advanced Energy Perspectives. … [Read more...]
Nord Stream 2: a bad deal for Germany and Eastern Europe
Nord Stream 2 is a bad deal both for Germany and its Eastern European partners, writes Georg Zachmann, Senior Fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. According to Zachmann, the proposed pipeline from Russia to Germany would “work against efforts to diversify gas supplies”. It may also lead to Eastern European countries having to pay higher prices for gas than Germany and would give Russia a tool to discriminate between countries.  Moreover, … [Read more...]
New study: Nord Stream 2 will benefit security of gas supply in Europe
Nord Stream 2 is likely to benefit rather than hurt energy security in Central and Eastern Europe and in the UK and Germany. The gas pipeline, which Gazprom and five major Western European energy companies want to build from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, can only be credibly stopped by the EU if the European Commission decides to transform itself from a “powerful competition watchdog” to a “political actor. Those are some of the main … [Read more...]
EUGAL: the unknown German branch of Nord Stream 2 will make Germany the key gas hub in Europe
Despite causing great controversy in the EU, plans to build the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline are steadily being implemented, write Agata Loskot-Strachota and Konrad Poplawski of the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) in Poland. What is more, in May preparations were started for a German land leg of Nord Stream 2: the EUGAL project, owned jointly by Gazprom and BASF/Wintershall. According to the authors, this huge pipeline will change the European gas … [Read more...]
Why oil prices are going up – and will continue to go up
Oil prices are going up as oil supply and demand are approaching a more balanced situation, writes geophysicist Jilles van den Beukel. And they will continue to go up as supply is expected to fall below demand in the 2018-2020 period. The key factor in supply reduction is that cost cutting is leading to higher decline rates of mature conventional fields. So far this decline has been compensated by new oil field developments, but the current … [Read more...]
TTIP and energy security: do Europeans still want US LNG?
When TTIP talks were launched in 2013, Europeans were keen to tap into the United States oil and gas bonanza resulting from the country’s shale revolution to help reduce prices and shake off the continent’s too-heavy reliance on Russian hydrocarbons. But now US shale gas is arrriving in Europe, regardless of TTIP, writes Iana Dreyer, editor of Borderlex, an independent newsletter on EU trade policy. According to Dreyer, national politics in … [Read more...]
On track for a Golden Age of Gas?
The global energy industry must overcome significant new challenges if natural gas development is to achieve the vision of a Golden Age of Gas, writes Geoffrey Styles, Managing Director of independent US-based consultancy GSW Strategy Group. Low energy prices and reduced investment are only half the battle as regulations complexify and organized opposition grows. … [Read more...]
The ill-fated gas strategy of the oil majors
The recent focus of major oil companies on gas (and LNG in particular) may be ill-fated, writes geophysicist Jilles van den Beukel. Gas is systematically less profitable than oil. And the oversupply of LNG (and resulting low prices) is likely to last much longer than the oversupply of oil. … [Read more...]
With a busted business model, oil economies head for the unknown
Until recently, petro-states like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Russia were able to use their wealth to spread their influence abroad, writes author Michael T. Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in the US. Now with their business model busted, he wonders what will come next: will they cling to reliance on fossil fuels and descend into chaos, or follow a path that will speed up the conclusion of the fossil fuel … [Read more...]
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