Analysts such as those from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) see no signs of a determined move away from fossil fuels, writes energy expert and author Michael Klare. According to Klare, success in any global drive to avert climate catastrophe will involve tackling addictive behavior at its roots and promoting lasting changes in lifestyle. To do that, it will be necessary to learn from the anti-drug and anti-tobacco communities about … [Read more...]
Europe increasingly dependent on oil imports, above all from Russia
European dependence on oil imports has grown from 76% in 2000 to over 88% in 2014. The EU spends some €215 bn on oil imports, over 5 times as much as gas imports (€40 bn). Russia is the biggest supplier: dependence on Russia has grown from 22% in 2001 to 30% in 2015.  These are some of the main conclusions of a study from Cambridge Econometrics made for the Brussels-based NGO Transport & Environment (T&E). … [Read more...]
Nord Stream 2: a bad deal for Germany and Eastern Europe
Nord Stream 2 is a bad deal both for Germany and its Eastern European partners, writes Georg Zachmann, Senior Fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. According to Zachmann, the proposed pipeline from Russia to Germany would “work against efforts to diversify gas supplies”. It may also lead to Eastern European countries having to pay higher prices for gas than Germany and would give Russia a tool to discriminate between countries.  Moreover, … [Read more...]
New study: Nord Stream 2 will benefit security of gas supply in Europe
Nord Stream 2 is likely to benefit rather than hurt energy security in Central and Eastern Europe and in the UK and Germany. The gas pipeline, which Gazprom and five major Western European energy companies want to build from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, can only be credibly stopped by the EU if the European Commission decides to transform itself from a “powerful competition watchdog” to a “political actor. Those are some of the main … [Read more...]
EUGAL: the unknown German branch of Nord Stream 2 will make Germany the key gas hub in Europe
Despite causing great controversy in the EU, plans to build the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline are steadily being implemented, write Agata Loskot-Strachota and Konrad Poplawski of the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) in Poland. What is more, in May preparations were started for a German land leg of Nord Stream 2: the EUGAL project, owned jointly by Gazprom and BASF/Wintershall. According to the authors, this huge pipeline will change the European gas … [Read more...]
Why oil prices are going up – and will continue to go up
Oil prices are going up as oil supply and demand are approaching a more balanced situation, writes geophysicist Jilles van den Beukel. And they will continue to go up as supply is expected to fall below demand in the 2018-2020 period. The key factor in supply reduction is that cost cutting is leading to higher decline rates of mature conventional fields. So far this decline has been compensated by new oil field developments, but the current … [Read more...]
The ill-fated gas strategy of the oil majors
The recent focus of major oil companies on gas (and LNG in particular) may be ill-fated, writes geophysicist Jilles van den Beukel. Gas is systematically less profitable than oil. And the oversupply of LNG (and resulting low prices) is likely to last much longer than the oversupply of oil. … [Read more...]
Nord Stream 2: Trust in Europe
The prospect of building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany is dividing the EU into two camps. By following geopolitical considerations, both sides are neglecting the concept of a liberalized natural gas market and are overlooking Europe’s favorable position in current international gas trade, writes Severin Fischer, Senior Researcher in the Global Security Team at the Center for Security Studies (CCS), ETH ZĂĽrich. … [Read more...]
With a busted business model, oil economies head for the unknown
Until recently, petro-states like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Russia were able to use their wealth to spread their influence abroad, writes author Michael T. Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in the US. Now with their business model busted, he wonders what will come next: will they cling to reliance on fossil fuels and descend into chaos, or follow a path that will speed up the conclusion of the fossil fuel … [Read more...]
OPEC has turned into battleground between Saudi Arabia and Iran
The next OPEC meeting on the 2nd of June will act as little more than a forum for continued altercations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, writes Rakesh Upadhyay of Oilprice.com. Relations between the two countries have reached a new low. The smaller OPEC nations have little choice but to remain spectators. … [Read more...]
What happens when demand for oil peaks?
A gradual move away from oil, will have many benefits for the global economy, write Amy Myers Jaffe, executive director of energy and sustainability at the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies, and Jeroen van der Veer, former CEO of Royal Dutch Shell. According to Myers Jaffe and Van der Veer, a diminished role for oil means markets will become more stable and costly price subsidies can be reduced. The authors, both members of the new … [Read more...]
Saudi Arabia needs realism – not a 2030 vision
The recently published economic reform plan for Saudi Arabia, Vision 2030, is completely unrealistic, writes ex-Shell geoscientist Jilles van den Beukel.  He argues that it should be seen in the light of Mohammed bin Salman’s grab for power. The deputy crown prince, the King's favourite and de facto ruler of the country, has a limited time span to solidify his power base, given the frail health of his father. Van den Beukel argues that only … [Read more...]
Globalisation of the gas market: it has been going on longer than you think
The general view among analysts is that gas prices in North America, Europa and Asia diverged in the period 2005-2014. This was always a bit odd, since regional markets were becoming more interconnected in those years through increased LNG trade, increased market related pricing and gas hub development. Now it turns out that, according to new research from Floris Merison at the Energy Delta Institute, the conventional view of price divergence is … [Read more...]
Debacle at Doha – the collapse of the old Oil OrderÂ
The failure of the world’s biggest oil producers to agree on an output freeze at their recent meeting in Doha, Qatar, was more than a geopolitical incident, writes energy author Michael T. Klare. The Doha debacle shows that the world of ever-increasing oil demand that we have come to known over the last decades is no more. From now on, suppliers will fight each other for ever diminishing market shares. Courtesy of TomDispatch. … [Read more...]
Saudi Arabia releases ambitious plan to diversify economy
On Monday, Saudi Arabia released a blueprint for the future, a plan for the Kingdom that could alter the course of its history. The "Vision for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia" could radically transform Saudi Aramco, the Saudi economy, and the country's social structure, reports Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com. … [Read more...]
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