By letting his foreign policy be governed by a simplistic “America First” principle, Donald Trump is achieving the exact opposite of what he intends. His way of putting America First, is enabling China and Russia to position themselves as the paramount nations on the world stage, writes energy and foreign policy specialist Michael Klare. Courtesy of Tomdispatch. … [Read more...]
Is President Trump headed for a war with China?Â
The brewing conflict around the South China Sea, with its large oil and gas resources, could easily turn into a catastrophic war between the US and China, writes Rajan Menon, international relations specialist at City College New York and Columbia University. Menon explains what is behind the territorial claims on the South China Sea and why it will be extremely risky for the US to try to confront China there. Courtesy of TomDispatch. … [Read more...]
Carbon Tracker: no growth for oil and coal from 2020, gas can flip-flop
Falling costs of electric vehicle and solar technology could halt growth in global demand for oil and coal from 2020, finds a new report co-authored by the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker Initiative launched on Thursday. The future of natural gas is highly uncertain in this new scenario analysis. … [Read more...]
Trump administration needs to be watched closely
The first actions of the new Trump administration raise grave concerns, both with regard to their energy policies and their policies in general, writes Allan R. Hoffman, author of the blog Thoughts of a Lapsed Physicist and formerly with the U.S. Department of Energy. We need to be vigilant to safeguard our democratic system. … [Read more...]
BP’s Energy Outlook: between forecasting and advocacy
BP’s new Energy Outlook predicts ever-growing demand for oil and gas, and rising emissions that would take the world well beyond 2°C of warming. According to Greg Muttitt, Senior Advisor at NGO Oil Change International, previous Outlooks do not provide much confidence in BP’s projections, but it clearly helps BP if decision-makers believe that’s what the future holds. It looks like the forecasting value of BP’s Outlook is undermined by its use as … [Read more...]
Theft of refined oil products threatens global stability
The theft of refined oil products, such as petrol and diesel, poses significant threats to the global economy and to the stability of states and regions in which it is prevalent, according to a first-ever in-depth study of global downstream oil theft, conducted by Ian M. Ralby for the Atlantic Council. The report shows that refined oil theft is becoming ever more sophisticated and increasingly involves those who are supposed to guard against it. … [Read more...]
The geopolitics of energy: renewables are not in the race yet
At the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi on 12-13 January, oil executives, Middle Eastern energy ministers and experts in the geopolitics of energy came together to discuss the geopolitical implications of “the energy transformation”. Yet no one presented a vision of what a new global order, based on renewable energy, would look like, writes Karel Beckman, Energy Post’s editor-in-chief. The oil players all embrace renewable … [Read more...]
Nuclear deal or not, Trump will turn Iran into a hot spot
Donald Trump could easily annul the Iran nuclear deal, writes Rajan Menon, Professor of International Relations at City College of New York and Senior Research Fellow at Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute. However, whether or not he will do so, is not the most important question, writes Menon. The real question is what he will do to Iran – and how disastrous that could turn out to be. Courtesy of Tomdispatch. … [Read more...]
The new outlook for oil: prepare for a bumpy ride in 2017
After two and a half years of opening up the taps (or rather: not closing them) OPEC has changed course in what is looking to be a gamechanger for the oil market. Market sentiment has shifted and the oil price has gone up. But that doesn’t mean we can go back to the status quo ante, writes geophysicist (ex-Shell) Jilles van den Beukel. Some things have changed permanently. Saudi Arabia’s position within OPEC has weakened, Iran’s has strengthened. … [Read more...]
Donald Trump’s carbon-obsessed energy policy and the planetary nightmare to comeÂ
Despite apparent contradictions, the main thrust of Donald Trump’s energy policy approach is very clear, writes author and energy expert Michael Klare: he aims to abolish all regulations that stand in the way of unrestrained fossil fuel extraction. Even if this spells doom for segments of the fossil fuel industry that will get hurt by low prices – not to mention the planet. Courtesy Tomdispatch.com. … [Read more...]
The OPEC deal: a recipe for volatility
Last week’s OPEC deal takes place in a very different context than earlier deals from the 1990s, writes Geoffrey Styles, Managing Director of independent US-based consultancy GSW Strategy Group. US shale producers are looking to fill supply gaps, inventories are higher than ever, and alternatives to oil in transport are emerging. If that’s not a recipe for volatility, Styles wonders, then what is? Original post. … [Read more...]
US energy Independence Day dawns
The most significant US energy policy update in a decade, the Energy Policy Modernization Act 2016, will be introduced into the new Congress in January 2017. With provisions for accelerated permitting for oil and gas drilling, construction of export LNG terminals, as well as energy efficiency standards and grid-integration of renewables, the outlook for US energy security is bright, according to Barry Worthington, Executive Director of the US … [Read more...]
Victory: Ukraine doesn’t need Russian gas anymore – and puts transit at risk
Ukraine has completely “eliminated” its dependence on Russian gas, Ukrainian national gas company Naftogaz has declared in an open letter. Last year it stopped importing Russian gas for its own consumption altogether. At the same time, according to a paper written by Thierry Bros, Senior Research Fellow from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), Naftogaz is putting the future of the transit of Russian gas at risk by demanding higher … [Read more...]
The future of OPEC: it won’t die, but it will become a different animal
Regardless of the outcome of the meeting on 30 November, the future of OPEC looks uncertain. The organisation is facing a perfect storm, squeezed as it is between the revolution in shale oil, which has increased global supply and brought down prices, and the prospect of a global peak demand stemming from climate policies and falling costs of alternatives. Some have even declared the death of OPEC, but according to Thijs Van de Graaf, professor at … [Read more...]
EU is losing the energy battle with Russia
Europe’s grand strategy to become less import dependent on Russian gas, which has been discussed since the 1990s, looks more and more like a failure, as the new Russian Tsar, Vladimir Putin, is consistently wrong-footing the leaders of the EU, writes Cyril Widdershoven. … [Read more...]
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