The new hype is to say that the end of the oil age is near. In the long run, the importance of oil will diminish, write Peter Simon Vargha, Chief Economist at  Hungarian oil and gas company MOL and his colleague Csaba Pogonyi, but before that some good years for oil are likely. Just as high prices reduced the likely future demand for oil, low prices will probably prolong its use. … [Read more...]
What happens when demand for oil peaks?
A gradual move away from oil, will have many benefits for the global economy, write Amy Myers Jaffe, executive director of energy and sustainability at the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies, and Jeroen van der Veer, former CEO of Royal Dutch Shell. According to Myers Jaffe and Van der Veer, a diminished role for oil means markets will become more stable and costly price subsidies can be reduced. The authors, both members of the new … [Read more...]
Can battery electrics disrupt the internal combustion engine? Part 2: âkind-ofâ
Battery electric cars do not meet the basic criteria for disruptive innovation, Schalk Cloete argued in part 1 of this two-part series. Small electric vehicles (SEVs), on the other hand, do have disruptive potential, he writes. Our urbanizing world with its rapidly expanding middle class and increasing resource constraints will reinforce this trend. Thus, he concludes, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles may lose substantial market share to … [Read more...]
Can battery electrics disrupt the internal combustion engine? Part 1: âNoâ
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will do well to take more than 10% of global light duty vehicle market share by mid-century, writes research scientist Schalk Cloete. This is because BEVs with the large battery pack needed for broad consumer acceptance will remain more expensive than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. According to Cloete, this price premium is unlikely to be accepted by the mass market even under optimistic future BEV … [Read more...]
Wake up call for oil companies: electric vehicles will deflate oil demand
The major oil companies greatly underestimate the impact electric vehicles will have on their market, write independent energy advisors Salman Ghouri and Andreas de Vries. According to Ghouri and De Vries, the trends currently underway in the auto industry are likely to have a substantial impact on oil demand in the medium term, and even a devastating impact in the longer term. … [Read more...]
Is oil becoming stranded?
The risk of stranded oil assets may be greater than many people think, writes Paul Spedding, former Global Co-Head of Oil and Gas Research at HSBC and advisor to the non-profit financial think tank Carbon Tracker, which popularised the term âcarbon bubbleâ. According to Spedding, climate policies may well lead to a drop in demand that will leave oil reserves destined for future production stranded. … [Read more...]
How can we move beyond oil?
The US is moving beyond coal, but when it comes to oil, the energy transition has only just begun, writes Justin Guay, Program Officer, Climate at the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. Oil still dominates the transport market â and the political landscape. According to Guay, to move beyond oil, there is only one solution: to embrace the opportunity of shared, autonomous, electrified mobility. Article co-authored with Anthony Eggert of … [Read more...]
BPâs view of electric cars looks unrealistic
BPâs latest long term outlook for the energy sector looks particularly unrealistic in its projection of a âmost likelyâ case of almost no uptake of electric vehicles by 2035, writes independent energy expert Adam Whitmore. According to Whitmore, even very moderate assumptions lead to substantially higher growth rates for EVs. … [Read more...]
Biofuels are back on the EU agenda
Biofuels are returning to the political agenda in Europe as EU policymakers start to shape a strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport after 2020. Biofuels producers continue to argue that they are an essential part of the solution, even as the low oil price puts an end to several cutting-edge projects, the European Commission prepares to publish a new report about indirect land-use change (ILUC) and some stakeholders urge a … [Read more...]
A health check for the oil majors: not dead yet
Market watchers are announcing the demise of the oil majors. Not for the first time. According to Jilles van den Beukel, former geoscientist with Shell, the oil companies are indeed seeing their world shrinking. But they are not dead yet: their reason for being â the worldâs demand for oil and gas â is still there. … [Read more...]
viEUws VIDEO: Top 5 environment priorities for Dutch EU presidency
Sonja van Renssen provides an overview of the Top 5 Environment priorities for the Dutch EU Presidency: 1. COP21 follow-up: The âEnergy Union, climate and transportâ is one of the Dutch presidencyâs five strategic priorities overall. 2. Circular economy: The Netherlands hopes to agree conclusions with other Member States on a non-legislative action plan to make more efficient use of resources and to kick off debate on new legal definitions … [Read more...]
The oil pricequake will doom the global political order
Given the centrality of oil and oil revenues in the global power equation, it is inevitable that depressed oil prices will doom the current global political order, writes Michael T. Klare, a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. Political turmoil is already raging across the oil heartlands of the planet â and the tremors from the oil pricequake have yet to reach their full magnitude, notes Klare. … [Read more...]
Let’s not kid ourselves: curbing carbon and stopping smog are not the same
There is a widespread belief that stopping smog will also reduce carbon emissions, or vice versa, that reducing carbon emissions will reduce air pollution. But according to Christopher Sellers, professor of history at Stony Brook University in the US, this is a mistake. Experience in the US shows that taming air pollution actually made it possible to burn more carbon. … [Read more...]
Paris climate deal: not a simple end to fossil fuels
The historic agreement on climate change reached in Paris a week ago is not a simple death knell for fossil fuels. Rather, it puts renewed focus on carbon capture and storage, throws a gauntlet down to the transport sector, and raises formidable governance as well as cost challenges for developing and developed countries alike. This is in addition to necessitating changes to electricity market design and grid infrastructure to accommodate more … [Read more...]
COP21: a deal is in the making
As we enter the second week of the worldâs make-or-break UN climate conference, the elements of a new global climate agreement are falling into place. It will provide energy companies the world over with the certainty of a long-term climate goal and of a push from governments to make them pay for their greenhouse gas emissions. But it will also recognise that the world has changed since the Kyoto Protocol and that emerging economies like China … [Read more...]
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