Due to declining electric vehicle (EV) costs, growth in charging station access, and increased familiarity and acceptance by the public, EVs will play an ever-greater role in the U.S. transportation sector, writes Jeffrey Rissman of Energy Innovation, a San Fransisco-based energy and environmental policy think tank.  In part one of our analysis, we reported EVs are likely to represent at least 65% of sales in 2050, and with strong technology cost … [Read more...]
America’s electric vehicle future, part 1: 65-75% light-duty sales by 2050
Rapid battery cost declines, rising commitment from major automakers, strong policy support from state and local governments, and low operational costs (including discounted charging tariffs from utilities) have put electric vehicles (EVs) on track to pass gasoline-powered vehicles, writes Jeffrey Rissman of Energy Innovation, a San Fransisco-based energy and environmental policy think tank. Indeed, U.S. EV sales have grown an average of 32% … [Read more...]
Beyond oil: options for clean fuel production
Several options exist for clean fuel production in the long-term future, writes Schalk Cloete in the third and last part of a series on the future of the internal combustion engine. Next-gen biofuels have the potential to approach current oil prices at a low environmental cost. Hydrogen can be produced economically from excess wind/solar power, nuclear heat or fossil fuels with CCS. Ammonia and hydrocarbon synfuels from clean hydrogen can be … [Read more...]
Electric vehicles and the $5 trillion dollar market transition
Change in the world of wheels is accelerating! Momentum is building and some days it’s hard to keep up. Every week, the assumptions about the future of transportation, and the energy systems that turn our wheels, are becoming more Jetson-esque. Peter Tertzakian of Oilprice.com tries to distinguish the reality from the hype. "An electric car is not like a smartphone or a Netflix subscription." … [Read more...]
Can China’s EVs lead to peak oil demand?
China's decision on whether and when to ban cars burning gasoline and diesel could alter our view of how far we are from a peak in global oil demand, writes independent energy analyst Geoffrey Styles. Even though the likely date of such a peak is highly uncertain, the idea of an impending peak could significantly affect investments and other decisions. … [Read more...]
The future for gas guzzlers lies in hybridization
The car of the future will be a hybrid, writes independent researcher Schalk Cloete in the second part of a short series in which he compares costs and performance of various drivetrains. According to Cloete, improvements and cost reductions in electric motors and batteries will, ironically, help the internal combustion engine (ICE) through hybridization. These cost reductions combined with substantial engine downsizing can make hybrid … [Read more...]
Why the electric car hype is overblown
Electric cars offer no clear fuel cost savings relative to efficient internal combustion engine (ICE) options, writes independent researcher Schalk Cloete. CO2 and tailpipe emission benefits are also insignificant relative to efficient ICEs. As a result, notes Cloete, ICE vehicles will remain highly competitive with battery electric vehicles (BEVs). … [Read more...]
Petrol car ban won’t work without a huge investment in electric infrastructure
The UK government is proposing a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040, in a move that echoes a recent announcement in France. Setting this sort of media-friendly target is a positive and welcome response to the challenge of air pollution across UK cities, write Richard Brooks and Jason Begley of Coventry University. But delivering the infrastructure, research and development support and incentives to switch to greener cars … [Read more...]
Does the 2040 ban on new petrol and diesel cars mean the death of biofuels?
One question that arises from the announcement by the UK government that new diesel and petrol cars will be banned by 2040 is what it means for biofuels. According to Raffaella Ocone of Heriot-Watt University, co-author of a recent UK-government-funded report into the biofuels industry by the Royal Academy of Engineering, the 2040 ban could be viewed as an opportunity for the biofuels sector. Article courtesy The Conversation. … [Read more...]
How electric vehicles could take a bite out of the oil market
When could peak oil demand be reached? Not as soon as it seems, even with the latest automotive news out of Europe, write Amy Myers Jaffe and Lewis Fulton of the University of California, Davis. Article courtesy The Conversation. (This is the third article in a short three-part series on the latest developments in EVs.) … [Read more...]
Britain to ban new fossil fuel vehicles by 2040
Great Britain will ban all new diesel and gasoline-powered automobiles after 2040. In an announcement on 26 July, Environment Secretary Michael Gove confirmed that vehicles powered solely by fossil fuels will no longer be allowed to be sold by then in Britain, and will instead be replaced by electric vehicles (EVs), writes Gregory Brew of Oilprice.com. Courtesy Oilprice.com. (This is the second article in a short three-part series on EVs that we … [Read more...]
Electric vehicles enter the here and now
The EV market is accelerating, with both governments and major car manufacturers announcing ambitious new targets and initiatives. Jason Mathers of EDF Energy Exchange takes stock of some of the most recent developments and notes that the U.S. is threatening to fall behind Europe and China, thanks to the Trump administration’s short-sighted policies. Courtesy EDF Energy Exchange/Climate 411 blog. (This is the first article in a short three-part … [Read more...]
Big Oil: growth of electric vehicles will lead to oil demand peak
Following Shell, oil major Total has now also indicated it is expecting increasingly tough competition from electric vehicles (EVs), writes John LeSage of Oilprice.com. One significant trend is the wide range of EVs that will be available in a few years. Courtesy Oilprice.com. … [Read more...]
The lowdown on hydrogen — part 1: transportation
The hydrogen economy had been written off as a failure by most industry watchers, writes independent energy expert and former software engineer Roger Arnold. Lately, however, hydrogen seems to be making a comeback. Not because of any special technology breakthroughs but because persistence and general advances have begun to pay off. … [Read more...]
How Germany’s plan for 100% electric cars could backfire
Germany has ambitious plans for both electric cars and renewable energy. But as things stand,  writes DĂ©nes Csala of Lancaster University, Germany’s well-meaning but contradictory ambitions would actually boost emissions by an amount comparable with the present-day emissions of Uruguay or the state of Montana. Courtesy The Conversation. … [Read more...]
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