The recent focus of major oil companies on gas (and LNG in particular) may be ill-fated, writes geophysicist Jilles van den Beukel. Gas is systematically less profitable than oil. And the oversupply of LNG (and resulting low prices) is likely to last much longer than the oversupply of oil. … [Read more...]
With a busted business model, oil economies head for the unknown
Until recently, petro-states like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Russia were able to use their wealth to spread their influence abroad, writes author Michael T. Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in the US. Now with their business model busted, he wonders what will come next: will they cling to reliance on fossil fuels and descend into chaos, or follow a path that will speed up the conclusion of the fossil fuel … [Read more...]
Can we save the algae biofuel industry?
Over the last decade or so, energy companies, including the likes of Shell and ExxonMobil, have invested large amounts of money in algal biofuels, only to find that the economics didn’t make sense, writes Christian Ridley, Research Associate in Plant Biotechnology at the University of Cambridge. However, according to Ridley, there still is a way forward for the industry, if the production of biodiesel from algae can be combined with production of … [Read more...]
OPEC has turned into battleground between Saudi Arabia and Iran
The next OPEC meeting on the 2nd of June will act as little more than a forum for continued altercations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, writes Rakesh Upadhyay of Oilprice.com. Relations between the two countries have reached a new low. The smaller OPEC nations have little choice but to remain spectators. … [Read more...]
Oil: not yesterday’s fuel – just yet
The new hype is to say that the end of the oil age is near. In the long run, the importance of oil will diminish, write Peter Simon Vargha, Chief Economist at  Hungarian oil and gas company MOL and his colleague Csaba Pogonyi, but before that some good years for oil are likely. Just as high prices reduced the likely future demand for oil, low prices will probably prolong its use. … [Read more...]
What happens when demand for oil peaks?
A gradual move away from oil, will have many benefits for the global economy, write Amy Myers Jaffe, executive director of energy and sustainability at the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies, and Jeroen van der Veer, former CEO of Royal Dutch Shell. According to Myers Jaffe and Van der Veer, a diminished role for oil means markets will become more stable and costly price subsidies can be reduced. The authors, both members of the new … [Read more...]
Saudi Arabia needs realism – not a 2030 vision
The recently published economic reform plan for Saudi Arabia, Vision 2030, is completely unrealistic, writes ex-Shell geoscientist Jilles van den Beukel.  He argues that it should be seen in the light of Mohammed bin Salman’s grab for power. The deputy crown prince, the King's favourite and de facto ruler of the country, has a limited time span to solidify his power base, given the frail health of his father. Van den Beukel argues that only … [Read more...]
Oil giants pile into “new energies”
Major oil companies like Total, ExxonMobil, Statoil and Shell have announced moves into “new energies”, writes Jason Deign, editor and publisher of Energy Storage Report. But according to Deign, it is hard to see how they can fight their way back into a renewable industry already sewn up by large players. The one remaining niche may be energy storage, which is still dominated by cash-hungry startups. … [Read more...]
Bakken shows: US tight oil production is up against its limits
Geology, drilling efficiency and increased focus on the best producing areas have all contributed to the dramatic increase in drilling productivity over the last 10 years in the Bakken, argue Jilles van den Beukel (ex-Principal Geoscientist with Shell) and Enno Peters. The contribution from technology is much smaller; for a given well location the well productivity has hardly improved. This has important implications: Van den Beukel and Peters … [Read more...]
Phasing out fossil fuels for renewables may not be a straightforward swap
To have any chance of preventing dangerous climate change, the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero or even negative by mid-century. Many experts suggest this means we need to completely phase out fossil fuels and replace them with renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. But according to Anthony James, lecturer with the National Centre for Sustainability, Swinburne University of Technology in Australia, new … [Read more...]
Globalisation of the gas market: it has been going on longer than you think
The general view among analysts is that gas prices in North America, Europa and Asia diverged in the period 2005-2014. This was always a bit odd, since regional markets were becoming more interconnected in those years through increased LNG trade, increased market related pricing and gas hub development. Now it turns out that, according to new research from Floris Merison at the Energy Delta Institute, the conventional view of price divergence is … [Read more...]
Debacle at Doha – the collapse of the old Oil OrderÂ
The failure of the world’s biggest oil producers to agree on an output freeze at their recent meeting in Doha, Qatar, was more than a geopolitical incident, writes energy author Michael T. Klare. The Doha debacle shows that the world of ever-increasing oil demand that we have come to known over the last decades is no more. From now on, suppliers will fight each other for ever diminishing market shares. Courtesy of TomDispatch. … [Read more...]
Why EU renewable energy figures are misleading: Europe requires 150% renewable energy to become fossil-free
The EU is confident it will reach its target of 20% renewable energy by 2020. But according to Martien Visser, professor at the Hanze University of Applied Sciences in Groningen (The Netherlands), this 20% is in reality more like 14%. This is because a large part of our energy consumption is simply ignored in the calculations for renewable energy. “Even with 100% renewables, we would still need a lot of fossil fuels”, Visser notes. … [Read more...]
Saudi Arabia releases ambitious plan to diversify economy
On Monday, Saudi Arabia released a blueprint for the future, a plan for the Kingdom that could alter the course of its history. The "Vision for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia" could radically transform Saudi Aramco, the Saudi economy, and the country's social structure, reports Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com. … [Read more...]
Can battery electrics disrupt the internal combustion engine? Part 1: “No”
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will do well to take more than 10% of global light duty vehicle market share by mid-century, writes research scientist Schalk Cloete. This is because BEVs with the large battery pack needed for broad consumer acceptance will remain more expensive than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. According to Cloete, this price premium is unlikely to be accepted by the mass market even under optimistic future BEV … [Read more...]
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