Zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) such as battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell electric, in every size and range category, can be cost competitive with their diesel equivalents by 2035. In several of those categories it can be much sooner â within the next six years – explains Julia Thomas at NREL. Researchers there have modelled how the total cost of driving for zero-emission and diesel MHDVs can evolve over time under … [Read more…]
New Solar study: 50% of global power by 2050, even without more ambitious climate policies
Nadia Ameli at UCL and Femke Nijsse and Jean-Francois Mercure at the University of Exeter present their study that shows solar is on track to make up more than half of global electricity generation by 2050, even without more ambitious climate policies. This far exceeds any previous estimates: last yearâs IEA World Energy Outlook predicted that solar would account for only 25% by 2050. The authorsâ macroeconomic model takes the latest … [Read more…]
Using Generative AI to speed up and improve the Wind Turbine blade design process
Justin Daugherty at NREL describes research there on using generative AI to accelerate and improve the wind turbine blade design process. To keep up with the pace of change in the market (not just customer demands, but policy regulations and technological innovations), the current method uses simplified low-fidelity modelling because itâs quicker to turn around. But it is also less accurate. Researchers are exploring deep-learning models using … [Read more…]
âFlow Batteriesâ for grid-scale storage: modelling cheaper alternatives to Vanadium
Flow batteries are a promising new technology for grid storage. Rather than the standard batteries that store charge in a solid material, they use a solution to store that charge, making large-scale long-duration electricity storage much easier. Vanadium electrolytes have been the preferred choice so far, but affordable supplies are limited and a cheaper alternative will be needed for global scale-up, explains Nancy Stauffer at MIT who describes … [Read more…]
âExascaleâ computing algorithms can deliver new Wind Turbine designs and on-site power-maximising strategies
Advances in exascale computing algorithms and models for multiscale atmospheric flows are leading to new wind turbine designs and on-site power-maximising strategies previously not possible, explains Brooke Van Zandt at NREL. The models can contain and process two billion grid points, simulating the air flow around turbines in a large wind farm with unprecedented accuracy. Van Zandt describes how the new tools are being used to deal with highly … [Read more…]
IPCCâs latest AR6 synthesis report lacks urgency and realism. Its own numbers say so
Kevin Anderson at the University of Manchester explains his deep disappointment in the recently released and influential IPCC AR6 synthesis report. Even the mainstream media criticised the lack of urgency in the language. Andersonâs objections go further. He says the reportâs own figures show net-zero must be reached by 2040, not the âearly 2050sâ as stated. Anderson goes on to criticise the modelling used as the standard, saying it is formulated … [Read more…]
New U.S. study: damage per ton of CO2 costs $185, not the official $51
Maximilian Auffhammer at the Energy Institute at Haas reviews a new paper that suggests CO2 causes over three times as much damage in dollar terms as the figure currently used by the US government, $51 per ton. The new study shows $185 per ton of CO2 as the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC). The updated model is superior to previous models, says Auffhammer. Itâs also open source, so anyone can use it, criticise it, and tweak the numbers to get … [Read more…]
Interpreting the Paris Agreement: the 1.5C and 2C targets are not two different options
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Gaurav Ganti at Humboldt University of Berlin, writing for Carbon Brief, want to clear up confusion over the 1.5C and 2C pathways. Their concern is that some people are interpreting the Paris Agreementâs wording as two separate targets, one simply better than the other. But they should not be seen as two different options. The objective of âwell below 2Câ must be seen by modellers and policy-makers as a clear … [Read more…]
Latest U.S. modelling shows Battery Storage can support an 80% Renewables grid by 2050
NRELâs latest Storage Futures Study concludes that battery storage should be able to support an 80% renewables grid mix in the U.S. by 2050. Madeline Geocaris at NREL explains how they modelled hundreds of future scenarios to accurately represent the value of diurnal (<12 hours) battery energy storage. The high-storage scenarios made different cost and performance assumptions for storage, wind, solar PV, and natural gas. 15 storage … [Read more…]
Whatâs best? Building Solar panels that last 30 years, or are short-lived easy-to-recycle and upgrade
The good news is that PV modules last so long â 30 years â that we donât have to worry about recycling for a while. The bad news is that means weâre not thinking about the alternative pathway of deliberately building modules that last only a few years yet can be easily recycled and improved. Harrison Dreves at NREL describes the data-gathering and creation of a modelling tool that quantifies the flow of materials, energy, and carbon in the PV … [Read more…]
An open-source standardised toolkit for modelling Marine Energy
New innovations need a lot of high quality modelling. That means collecting real world data, then coding the programs that run the models. This is labour intensive and takes time to do properly. The modelling needs to be standardised too, otherwise direct comparisons between competing ideas are virtually impossible. Caitlin McDermott-Murphy at NREL describes the latest version of their Marine and Hydrokinetic Toolkit (MHKiT) for modelling a wide … [Read more…]
All estimates of the âcostâ of climate action should include the savings and benefits
Too many climate mitigation scenarios calculate the cost of that transition without measuring the savings and benefits, explain Alexandre Köberle and Joeri Rogelj at Imperial College London, Toon Vandyck at the EC’s Joint Research Centre, and Celine Guivarch at the Centre International de Recherche sur lâEnvironnement et le Developpement, writing for Carbon Brief. This leads to a pessimistic view of the challenges ahead, and public aversion to … [Read more…]
Open-source modelling for the energy transition and climate change
Modelling tools are becoming increasingly important to policy makers for creating transition pathways. More detail is required as the pace of change accelerates. Yet complexity is increasing as new technologies and solutions come online. And those models are needed at the local level, not just the national and global. Itâs why the EU is funding, through Horizon 2020, a range of projects to not only make those tools a success, but make them freely … [Read more…]
Grid-scale modelling of Distributed Energy Resources and dynamic pricing for all customers
Smart grids can solve multiple problems now and throughout the lifetime of the energy transition. The supply from hundreds (existing + new wind, solar, etc.) and ultimately millions (rooftop solar, EV batteries) of power sources can be matched in real time with demand from all major customer devices (air conditioners, water heaters, batteries, EVs). Dynamic pricing keeps the peaks low and the troughs high. It takes the pressure off total load, … [Read more…]
Using ENTSO-Eâs modelling for Chinaâs grid expansion
The EU and China have similar challenges when expanding their complex grid network. Both have large populations and multiple borders (China has 23 provinces, five autonomous regions, four municipalities and two administrative regions). Both must rapidly add clean power whilst ensuring energy security at the lowest cost. Helen Farrell at ECECP describes their project to use European ENTSO-E modelling tools to assess scenarios for China. One key … [Read more…]
