The construction of two coal-fired power plants has been stalled in Kenya by the Kenyan courts and in Bangladesh by UNESCO, both for environmental reasons. It’s an opportunity for the two countries to also recognise the purely commercial reasons to go for renewables, says Simon Nicholas of IEEFA. While most of Asia has been powering ahead with renewables, Bangladesh has been lagging behind. But a continued rollout of renewable energy will quickly … [Read more...]
Time for tech-neutral incentives if renewables growth won’t stop climate change?
In 2018 energy use grew 2.9% and emissions 2%. That means renewables are not keeping up with energy’s growth: it will need a four-fold increase in wind and solar’s growth to do so, says Schalk Cloete. There’s more: to cut global CO2 emissions by the 3% per year we need to meet the Paris goals wind and solar growth rates must increase by over an order of magnitude. He reviews the evidence and concludes that current technology-forcing policies – … [Read more...]
BP Review of 2018: record CO2, energy use as gas outstrips wind & solar
Energy use grew at 2.9% in 2018, the largest rise since 2010. It’s what happens when economies grow. But gas, oil and coal's contribution to that growth saw global CO2 emissions rise by 2% in 2018, the largest year-on-year increase in seven years. Wind and solar growth, driven by China though slowing in the US, EU, and India, achieved its second fastest rate on record - but still lagged behind gas additions. These are not the trends we need to … [Read more...]
Overbuild solar: it’s getting so cheap curtailment won’t matter
Avoiding curtailment made sense when solar generation was extremely expensive: don’t build solar beyond what you can store. However, that means solar must always wait for storage costs to decline and capacity grow. But with solar prices plummeting it can make economic sense to overbuild it, say Richard Perez, University at Albany, and Karl Rabago, Pace University. Oversized solar will deliver more energy in low light and reduce the need for … [Read more...]
U.S. Coal: firms go bankrupt as share of generation halves over 10 years
In the U.S. coal’s market share for power generation has halved in 10 years to 24%, from close to 50% in 2008. That year a record 1,172m tons was produced. But a combination of the rapid drop in solar and wind costs, continued competition from cheap gas, and ageing coal plants (most were built between 1965 and 1985) means that steep decline is set to continue, say Seth Feaster and Karl Cates of IEEFA U.S.. It’s why Cloud Peak Energy, the … [Read more...]
Solar intermittency: upbeat “annual” carbon reduction estimates miss the “hourly” reality
There is a maximum speed at which solar capacity can expand. You know you’ve passed it when insufficient storage means solar curtailment, or selling the daytime excess means curtailment of other clean energy generators. As solar grows, so too will this problem. Vincent Xia, at the Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, reports on a new Stanford study which says emissions predictions are not taking this into account, thus … [Read more...]
2009 to 2017: solar, wind costs plummet, hydro steady, nuclear up
Between 2009 and 2017 prices dropped 76% for solar panels and 34% for wind turbines. Hydro and nuclear struggle to cut costs; as mature technologies, most of the efficiencies have already been squeezed out already. Also, they are difficult to productise and scale; dams (definitely) and nuclear plants (somewhat) are one-offs. In contrast, solar panels and wind turbines are far easier to productise and then mass produce. It’s why wind overtook … [Read more...]
Developing World: cashflow analysis shows gas, coal far more profitable than clean energy
80% of future energy infrastructure will be built in the developing world. Schalk Cloete has already written for us on the purely economic viability of developed world onshore wind, utility-scale solar PV, nuclear, natural gas and coal. He now presents his detailed cashflow analyses of the major generator technologies applied to the developing world. Because costs tend to be much lower the returns are higher. But gas and coal still easily … [Read more...]
UK: Despite progress, 100% low-carbon is still a long way off
The UK transition is often cited as a success story. Coal’s contribution has dropped from 40% to 6%. Wind, solar and hydroelectric now generates more electricity than nuclear. Demand for electricity has also fallen. The carbon intensity of Britain’s electricity has almost halved, from over 500g of COâ‚‚ per kilowatt-hour in 2006 to under 270g in 2018. The National Grid now expects to be able to operate a zero-carbon electricity system by 2025. But … [Read more...]
Barriers to intermittent renewables and battery storage come tumbling down
The astonishing growth of the renewable energy sector shows little sign of slowing, as costs continue to plummet, along with the cost of energy storage, to remove many of the barriers to using intermittent renewable generating sources in a range of applications. Much of this is down to the fact that the cost of battery energy storage is one third lower than this time last year. … [Read more...]
China plans UHV transmission lines that span continents
China’s Global Energy Interconnection (GEI) project aims to create a worldwide network of UHV transmission lines that can deliver electricity between continents. If successful, generating electricity in the most remote areas – think deserts and the Arctic – becomes viable, as does China’s ability to sell electricity directly to Europe. First, two main technological challenges have to be overcome: energy loss along transmission lines spanning … [Read more...]
Renewable hydrogen “already cost competitive”, says new research
Jocelyn Timperley at Carbon Brief has interviewed the lead author, and the critics, of this new report titled “Economics of converting renewable power to hydrogen”. The research says renewable hydrogen is already proving competitive for niche, high-intensity users in Germany and Texas. Future technological improvements, combined with expected changes to subsidies and CCS requirements, can make it so for large-scale industrial users in the next 10 … [Read more...]
Investing in gas: the effect of carbon taxes, gas prices, and the growth of renewables
Schalk Cloete presents his latest article looking at what affects the profitability of an investment in a specific power sector. After reviewing onshore wind, nuclear and solar, he now looks at gas. His analysis of coal is to come. The major variables are increasing CO2 prices, and natural gas pricing. He adds that the growth of wind and solar should benefit load-following gas power plants: they are plugging the intermittency gap when electricity … [Read more...]
Wind build-out: convergence of process and permitting rules needed to promote certainty for investors
Two weeks ago, Energy Post reported on permitting and legal barriers to the development of onshore wind capacity in Germany. In this follow-up analysis, Mike Scott identifies similar obstacles in key regions as well as some clear success stories. To complete the picture, he spoke with WindEurope and Vattenvall to get their views on the way forward for the industry and investors across the EU. … [Read more...]
Energy as a service: light, heat, mobility, information
Large scale electricity generators, unconcerned with end-use, want to sell you more electricity, argues Walt Patterson of the Hoffmann Centre for Sustainable Resource Economy, based at Chatham House. But the arrival of small-scale, localised and micro-grid suppliers could see the electricity generation business turned on its head. It opens the door to the selling of the service – light, heat, refrigeration, motive power, information – rather than … [Read more...]
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