Everyone is predicting the continued expansion of gas through to 2050. Jim Conca reviews the state of play in the U.S. to explain why that projection makes sense. The welcome and rapid growth of renewables still needs something to provide backup load-following to a growing and increasingly intermittent electric grid. Gas is the cheapest to roll out and can keep prices low for decades. The other two contenders, hydro and nuclear, just canât match … [Read more...]
The rapid liberalisation of Chinaâs domestic gas market
Chinaâs coal-to-gas ambitions are driving big changes to its internal gas markets, says a report âChinaâs Quest for Blue Skies: The Astonishing Transformation of the Domestic Gas Marketâ by the IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate, authored by Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe. To cope with a doubling of gas demand by 2030, market reforms are liberalising the downstream gas market. Nobody wants a repeat of the winter shortages of 2017-18. And air … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 3 of 5): fossil fuels
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technology, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. Cloete reminds us that fossil fuels did not reach their dominant … [Read more...]
TurkStream disruption: Turkey, Greece can become new gas hubs
For over 30 years the Trans-Balkan pipeline has been used to pump Russian gas to southeast Europe. But Russiaâs construction of the new TurkStream pipelines can open the door for the Trans-Balkan to be re-purposed, explains Aura Sabadus writing for the Atlantic Council. Going forward, LNG can be imported into Turkey and Greece and pumped back up the same pipes to serve the region, reducing dependence on Russian gas. However, such a plan would … [Read more...]
EU policing of Member State gas plans not consistent
Elisa Giannelli at E3G explains why the European Commissionâs assessment of Member Statesâ natural gas plans is not consistent, on three fronts. Firstly, with its own EU climate targets: many nations are planning to increase their consumption of and investment in gas regardless of EU-wide targets to cut emissions. Secondly, the Commission is critical of some of these nations but actually supportive of others. Thirdly, even the EUâs own policies … [Read more...]
Chinaâs quest for gas security is reshaping the global LNG market
In just two years, China has become the worldâs top gas importer and should soon become the largest importer of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). But that growing import dependency, domestic winter supply concerns, and the trade war with the U.S. means the Chinese government is reinforcing its gas supply policy, says a report "Chinaâs Quest for Gas Supply Security: The Global Implications"Â by the IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate, authored by … [Read more...]
UK fracking earthquakes: why the worldâs âtoughestâ safety rules failed to predict them
In August this year Lancashire experienced the largest fracking-induced earthquake recorded in the UK. Fracking was suspended. Legislators discussed a complete ban. As a result, serious questions are being asked about the effectiveness of the safety regulations, given the operating company, Cuadrilla, predicted there was a âlow-likelihoodâ of such events occurring. And given the UKâs âtraffic light systemâ (TLS) is the most stringent TLS in the … [Read more...]
The Balkansâ biggest power station â why thinking beyond Maritsa East 2 matters
By energy lawyers Dominique Doyle (ClientEarth) and Regina Stoilova (Za Zemiata Access to Justice) In Bulgariaâs Stara Zagora region, the Balkansâ biggest coal plant chugs steadily away, part of a giant industrial complex. Maritsa East 2âs reputation is as a provider of jobs and stability. The cloud of pollution that hangs over the region â and the cloud of uncertainty that hangs over its future â go largely undiscussed. The plantâs … [Read more...]
Peak coal on the horizon: a country-by-country review
Though the global coal fleet still increased by 17GW in the first half of 2019, net of retirements, the pipeline is definitely shrinking. Two thirds of proposed projects never even get started. Notably, in China existing coal plants have been running, on average, only 50% of the time since 2015, evidence of a large excess of capacity. But is it enough? The IPCCâs pathway to 1.5C requires unabated coal power generation to fall by 55-70% by 2030 … [Read more...]
Cybersecurity: the knock-on cost of digital efficiency
The oil and gas market slump of 2015 brought extra pressure to bear on majors to reduce their breakeven barrel price. The quest for deeper efficiencies included a tidal shift toward digitalisation. According to Gaurav Sharma, vulnerable systems are in urgent need of upgrading and require constant protection at an estimated cost of $40 billion plus per annum. With existential external factors already putting the squeeze on investment, the growing … [Read more...]
China’s coal needs Carbon Capture. Can U.S. knowledge help?
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays a crucial role. We still live in a world where coal (mainly in developing countries) and gas (almost everywhere) continues to power growing economies. But the pipeline of new large-scale CCS facilities is nowhere close to what we need: around a hundred new units every year between 2020 and 2040, according to the Global CCS Institute. A report by the IFRI Centre for Energy … [Read more...]
Kenya, Bangladesh: Environmental rulings stall coal plans. So should the economics
The construction of two coal-fired power plants has been stalled in Kenya by the Kenyan courts and in Bangladesh by UNESCO, both for environmental reasons. Itâs an opportunity for the two countries to also recognise the purely commercial reasons to go for renewables, says Simon Nicholas of IEEFA. While most of Asia has been powering ahead with renewables, Bangladesh has been lagging behind. But a continued rollout of renewable energy will quickly … [Read more...]
Member States must decide: cash for climate or cash for carbon?
Over 3 billion euros of EU money meant for Europeâs poorer regions could be up for grabs by the fossil fuel industry if EU Member States do not change their current position on 25 June. The funding, which is part of the 374 billion Euro âCohesion Policyâ pot, was - in the European Commissionâs proposal - meant to go to sustainable economic activities. Yet if EU Member States get their way, a significant portion of the funding would be made … [Read more...]
$400bn in global fossil fuel consumption subsidies, twice that for renewables
At over $400bn in 2018, global fossil fuel consumption subsidies are more than double those for renewables. That makes sense while governments worldwide use energy subsidies to help poor consumers, and clean energy still makes up a smaller proportion of the global energy mix. But it makes the transition harder: cheaper fossil energy means more is consumed, and itâll take longer for clean energy to compete it away. The IEAâs WEO Energy Analysts … [Read more...]
U.S. sanctions against Nord Stream 2: the global realpolitik of Russian gas for Europe
The proposed US sanctions aimed at Nord Stream 2 (NS2) are yet another hurdle in the way of the controversial Russian gas pipeline for Europe. But they are not an attempt by the Americans to prevent Gazprom from supplanting them as a supplier, says Alan Riley at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, because NS2 will deliver no more gas than the current route via Ukraine, just replace it. He argues the sanctions are to constrain Russiaâs … [Read more...]
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