Schalk Cloete is creating his own Global Energy Forecast to 2050. He wants to see how his own independent analysis will match up with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. And so do we. Rich with data, his major predictions include a global policy shift from technology-forcing to technology-neutrality shortly before 2030, driven by growing worldwide acceptance of the severity of climate change. The exhaustion of the 1.5°C and, … [Read more...]
Why coordinated Dutch-German climate action is critical for Europe
Both the Netherlands and Germany are about to propose major new national climate measures. If the proposals become law, they will enforce some of the most stringent national targets for GHG reductions in the world. Itâs why, on 22 August, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will host a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her âclimate cabinetâ. Coordinated Dutch-German climate action can make these neighbouring countries role models for … [Read more...]
NDC reporting: making the Paris Agreement Transparency Framework work
For the system of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to be effective, every countryâs reporting processes need to be appropriate to their economic level, honest and accurate. That means the Paris Agreementâs Transparency Framework, including the Common Reporting Tables (CRT) for greenhouse gas inventories, and Common Tabular Formats (CTF) to track progress on their NDCs, needs to be finalised and agreed upon, and fast, says the IDDRIâs … [Read more...]
EU ETS Modernisation Fund: putting the wind in the sails of the Transition
Transforming the power system to reach climate neutrality by 2050 will cost approximately âŹ100bn per year according to Eurelectric. In recognition of the different starting points for Member States, the European Commission has introduced the new EU ETS Modernisation Fund (MF) which could be worth as much as âŹ25bn* to the beneficiaries between 2021 and 2030. According to Monika Morawiecka, CEO of PGE Baltica, offshore wind already makes business … [Read more...]
GDP – Gross Environmental Damage = actual wealth creation
We all know that GDP measures everything thatâs been paid for, both the good and the bad. There have already been studies that try to account for the âbadâ GDP that costs us in the long run and so adds less value than stated. Catherine Wolfram, at the Haas School of Business, takes a thoughtful look at Gross Environmental Damage which separates out the kind of GDP that weâre going to have to spend money cleaning up in the future. The GED concept … [Read more...]
Time for tech-neutral incentives if renewables growth wonât stop climate change?
In 2018 energy use grew 2.9% and emissions 2%. That means renewables are not keeping up with energyâs growth: it will need a four-fold increase in wind and solarâs growth to do so, says Schalk Cloete. Thereâs more: to cut global CO2 emissions by the 3% per year we need to meet the Paris goals wind and solar growth rates must increase by over an order of magnitude. He reviews the evidence and concludes that current technology-forcing policies â … [Read more...]
Member States must decide: cash for climate or cash for carbon?
Over 3 billion euros of EU money meant for Europeâs poorer regions could be up for grabs by the fossil fuel industry if EU Member States do not change their current position on 25 June. The funding, which is part of the 374 billion Euro âCohesion Policyâ pot, was - in the European Commissionâs proposal - meant to go to sustainable economic activities. Yet if EU Member States get their way, a significant portion of the funding would be made … [Read more...]
France and Britain race for carbon neutrality by 2050
Inspired by the UKâs independent Committee on Climate Change (CCC) and the progress it has enabled in that nationâs acceleration to net-zero, France set up its equivalent Haut Conseil pour le Climat. Its first report is launched tomorrow (June 25th). The CCC certainly has made a difference, as this month the UK enshrined in law its goal of net-zero by 2050. The French parliament is in discussions to do the same. CĂ©line Guivarch and Corinne Le … [Read more...]
BP Review of 2018: record CO2, energy use as gas outstrips wind & solar
Energy use grew at 2.9% in 2018, the largest rise since 2010. Itâs what happens when economies grow. But gas, oil and coal's contribution to that growth saw global CO2 emissions rise by 2% in 2018, the largest year-on-year increase in seven years. Wind and solar growth, driven by China though slowing in the US, EU, and India, achieved its second fastest rate on record - but still lagged behind gas additions. These are not the trends we need to … [Read more...]
EU to help China fulfil its global climate obligations, and in returnâŠ
Last monthâs launch of the EU China Energy Cooperation Platform (ECECP) should serve as great encouragement for EU energy firms looking to participate in the developing Chinese energy system. Up until now itâs been possible but challenging as firms have not been competing on a level-playing field. But that is set to change as a whole raft of factors mean the time is ripe for meaningful cooperation between the worldâs two leading energy … [Read more...]
Capacity markets: a brewing clash
Electricity Capacity Mechanisms (CMs) were conceived to make sure there is always enough energy for the grid, even as demand and supply fluctuate. A legal challenge from Tempus Energy in the European General Court led to the UKâs CM being suspended by the government. Now a similar case is being brought to the Court, relating to the Polish CM. Another win for Tempus could lead to further cases across the EU and could dent the way countries finance … [Read more...]
IEA clean energy progress report: Only 7 technologies/sectors on track, 38 not
Of the 45 energy technologies and sectors assessed in the IEAâs latest Tracking Clean Energy Progress (TCEP) report, only 7 are on track with the IEAâs Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS). Itâs their latest and most comprehensive assessment of clean energy transitions. âOn trackâ includes energy storage, EVs and solar PV. But buildings, car, flaring and methane emissions are still rising. This yearâs TCEP puts much greater emphasis on … [Read more...]
Chinaâs industry: Deep decarbonisation progress and challenges
Across the world, industry is regarded as a hard-to-decarbonise sector, and an emissions priority. In China itâs responsible for over 65% of its energy consumption and 70% of carbon emissions. Ji Chen and Shuyi Li of the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) look at the highlights of Chinaâs efforts, and reference them against the RMIâs Reinventing Fire: China analysis. Efficiency, electrification, CCUS, hydrogen and ârecycle and reuseâ all play an … [Read more...]
Electricity Capacity Mechanisms face legal challenge in UK, Poland
Recognising that energy markets might not always be able to meet demand on their own, the European Commission allows EU Member States to operate Capacity Mechanisms (CMs). These schemes offer contracts via publicly administered auctions to suppliers who help 'guarantee' there is always spare power for the grid, even as demand and supply fluctuate. But the designs of the CMs are proving contentious, and legal challenges to CMs threaten to shut … [Read more...]
EU plans first satellite fleet to monitor CO2 in every country
The speed and policies required for a successful transition depend on our ability to measure emissions accurately and globally. Thatâs why Europe is readying a new fleet of three satellites to monitor CO2 emissions at every point on earth, creating the first worldwide system capable of measuring at city and even power plant level in close to real time, reports Karl Mathiesen at Climate Home News. It will mean, for example, a city can measure how … [Read more...]
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