Predicting future energy demand is difficult, more so when you must account for the choices made by individual households spread all across the globe. Air conditioning is a case in point. To tackle this, Lucas Davis led a team at the Haas School of Business to quantify each nation’s need for air conditioning, and rank them (219 countries and 1,692 cities). To get a nation’s “total CDD exposure” they, in essence, worked out their average cooling … [Read more...]
The search for “thin film” solar PV: stable, efficient, non-toxic, abundant
Around 95% of the world’s solar modules are made with silicon. It’s stable against temperature and humidity fluctuations and we’ll never run out of it. But it’s quite inefficient at absorbing sunlight, and very brittle. So the silicon layers in PV have to be quite thick to capture sunlight and resist cracking, leading to heavy and bulky solar panels. The remaining 5% of solar modules are “thin film”, opening the way for game-changing lightweight … [Read more...]
Hydrogen’s future: reducing costs, finding markets
Although 100Mt/year of hydrogen is produced globally and at scale, it’s overwhelmingly for the chemical industry. So there’s a long way to go for it to play a role in the energy transition. It’s not even clear whether hydrogen will be best used directly as a power source or through further conversion into other powerfuels. That's why Dolf Gielen and Emanuele Taibi at IRENA are scoping out the challenges of reducing production costs and finding … [Read more...]
2019-2024: competitive auctions will launch over 2/3rds of utility-scale renewables, says IEA
Government support for new utility-scale capacity is being replaced with competitive auctions, the surest sign that the commercial appetite for renewables - particularly solar PV and onshore wind - is growing strong. This article by the IEA pulls out the essential numbers from their annual Renewables 2019 report (their 5-year market analysis and forecast for renewable energy and technologies in the electricity, heat and transport sectors). The … [Read more...]
Distributed Solar: rooftop residential, commercial systems keep getting cheaper
In the U.S., PV module efficiency (median values) rose from 12.7% in 2002 to 18.4% in 2018, much of it in the last decade and a full percentage-point increase in the last year alone. The best modules are even more efficient, says John Rogers at the Union of Concerned Scientists. Improvements have come from manufacturing processes and cell architectures, and the increasing share of more-efficient mono-crystalline technologies: up from 40% in 2016 … [Read more...]
Decarbonising light duty vehicles globally: consumer choice, technology, policy pathways
The MIT Energy Initiative (MITIE) has completed a 3-year study of “Mobility of the Future” to plot a decarbonised pathway for light duty vehicles (i.e. cars) globally. Wide in scope and detail, it covers government policies, consumer choices and technologies, combining their multiple and complex impacts to make their assessments. Kathryn Luu at MITIE reviews the final 220-page report. For consumers, cost, convenience, and — increasingly — carbon … [Read more...]
The coalition for an EU-ETS carbon price floor is reaching critical mass
The EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) is bound to play a major role for ratcheting up climate policies in both the EU and its member states. After a prolonged period of low prices that questioned the ETS’s viability, the recent price run upwards in the wake of a major reform has sparked confidence that from now on “everything goes in the right direction”. But this confidence is misguided and ignores major risks for the scheme, argue Michael … [Read more...]
Biofuels: slump in investment and innovations must be reversed
IRENA is predicting the future of liquid biofuels by monitoring the number and technology-type of patents. It’s not looking good. The first thing to note is that, after a promising rise, the total number of patents has slid from over 6,000 in 2011 to around 2,500 in 2017. That’s reflected in the dramatic fall in global biofuel investments, from $27bn in 2007 to $2bn in 2017. The likely main cause is a lack of stable regulation, say Alessandra … [Read more...]
COP25: the “easy wins” are coming to an end. What now?
Lola Vallejo at IDDRI says the impressive wins we’ve seen so far in clean electrification are merely the easy “low hanging fruit”. Other big sectors like transport, buildings and industry have barely started to transition. As COP 25 convenes in Madrid this week, the world will want to know what promises will be made - via each country’s self-imposed enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) - to meet the Paris goals, because the current … [Read more...]
Grid-Interactive Buildings solutions: U.S. govt is looking for you
According to U.S. figures, up to 80% of peak electricity demand comes from buildings. So designing them to be energy efficient, with their own generation (e.g. rooftop solar), storage, and load-flexibility – and making it a cost effective industry standard – would be a game changer. It’ll make the grid more resilient, and take pressure off utilities investing in expanding the underlying infrastructure. Sneha Ayyagari and Matt Jungclaus at Rocky … [Read more...]
Fossil fuel politics is changing: Big Oil, automakers split on Trump lowering standards
Cara Daggett at Virginia Tech has noticed a positive change in corporate support for the Transition. In the past, Big Oil and automakers would have opposed any limits to business-as-usual. But today, major oil companies, including BP and Royal Dutch Shell, are opposing U.S. President Trump’s intention to further deregulate methane emissions. That’s because they’ve invested heavily in natural gas as a bridge fuel for a clean future, which would … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 v the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 to compare with this year’s IEA World Energy Outlook, published mid-November. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another, like a very high carbon tax) in 2030: in his opinion it will be the best way to accelerate the transition to meet the Paris goals as the 1.5°C … [Read more...]
Better grid integration beats coal plant ramping to reduce wind, solar curtailment
Wind and solar curtailment is worst where these renewables are poorly integrated into the grid. The further their energy can reach the more regions they can service, thus minimising curtailment. If they don’t reach far, local coal plants must ramp down - but only if they’ve been retrofitted to be able to do so. It’s a problem faced by many countries: spend money on the retrofits or the integration? Writing for the Regulatory Assistance Project … [Read more...]
Grid switchgear uses SF6, the world’s most potent greenhouse gas. How do we regulate it?
Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6) is described as the world’s worst greenhouse gas. It’s 23,500 times more potent than CO2. Global annual emissions are 8,100 tonnes, equivalent to the CO2 emissions of 100m cars. It has an atmospheric lifetime of over 1,000 years and its installed base is expected to grow by 75% by 2030. 80% of all SF6 is used in gas insulated switchgear, a vital component of the grid (isolating and protecting different sections), so … [Read more...]
Decarbonising industry: how much policy-driven adoption is needed to let the market take over
Decarbonising industry is one of the world’s greatest challenges. The costs, today, are huge and therefore the technology adoption required has hardly started. But several technologies already exist. Gbemi Oluleye at Imperial College (UK) explains the first step is to measure the market size for each sub-sector, then estimate how much policy-driven adoption is required to achieve the cost reductions that make the change viable. After that, no … [Read more...]
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