Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with this yearâs IEA World Energy Outlook, published this week. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another) in 2030 as the best and only way to accelerate the transition to meet the 2050 goals. Given that, he sees the traditional fossil fuel ICEâs share … [Read more...]
IEA’s WEO 2019 scenarios wonât hit the Paris targets, again. It must start telling us what will
As always, the energy world is abuzz with reactions to the IEAâs annual World Energy Outlook, published yesterday. As always, itâs getting plenty of criticism from those who say it lacks ambition, and in doing so will again get quoted to justify support for continued reliance on fossil fuels, explains Kelly Trout at Oil Change International. The IEAâs most ambitious pathway, the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), gives a 66% chance of … [Read more...]
Electricity pricing: shifting costs on to households that can afford it
Utilities need to invest in the future, and the Transition needs to be paid for by their customers. The less painful that is to each customer, the more publicly acceptable it will be. Maximilian Auffhammer at the Energy Institute at Haas explains how electricity pricing usually combines a fixed monthly charge with a block rate price (the charge for each additional unit of energy). Here he reviews a new report that scrutinises how different firms … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 4 of 5): Nuclear, biomass and CCS
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technological progress, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. If nuclear, biomass and CCS take off they will … [Read more...]
German Onshore Wind hit by residential regulations: will new profit-share rules help?
5.3 GW of newly installed capacity in 2017, 2.4 GW in 2018, 0.5 GW in the first nine months of 2019. Germanyâs onshore wind power expansion has seen a dramatic slump. Thatâs completely against the trend in total renewables growth which saw its share of gross power consumption reached a record of almost 43% in 2019, up 5% on the previous year. Clearly, onshore wind is facing obstacles the other technologies arenât, and that is the rules around how … [Read more...]
DNV-GL: energyâs shrinking share of growing global GDP shows how we can afford Transition
At the current rate of progress higher energy efficiency, more renewables, and carbon capture will not be enough to keep the global temperature rise to well below 2°C. So to point the way, DNV-GL has condensed its Energy Transition Outlook 2019 into 10 ways technology can meet the COP21 targets. This article gives figures on how much solar and wind we really need, battery production, annual investment in grids, and energy efficiency. It further … [Read more...]
Germany 2021: when fixed feed-in tariffs end, how will renewables fare?
Starting in 2021 many of Germanyâs existing âpioneerâ wind turbines, solar PV installations and biogas plants â launched with generous price guarantees - will stop receiving fixed feed-in tariffs. That means renewable capacity may be shut down if they canât find a new business model to run on. The new rules comes at a decisive time for Germanyâs energy transition as it tries to increase renewables to meet emissions targets and gradually increase … [Read more...]
India: coal plummets, renewables stepping in
In 2018, 80% of Indiaâs total energy lending went to renewables. Coal got the rest, a major fall compared to 2017. No wonder, given coal plants have been running at below 60% utilisation for two years with the operators suffering huge losses. Renewables are now undercutting coal and getting cheaper. And shortages in water â needed for plant cooling â just add to their woes. Vibhuti Garg at IEEFA catalogues the problems, then describes the … [Read more...]
Women facing barriers in the renewables workforce
Gender discrimination always matters. It should matter even more to the new green economy. Justice aside, barriers against half the workforce limit your talent pool. For a sector where "business as usual" guarantees failure we need to ensure the fairest selection processes from the widest possible pool as new jobs are created every day. But todayâs energy sector has a bigger role to play. Energy is now arguably the 21st centuryâs âsector of … [Read more...]
Will the German Climate Protection Programme 2030 miss its own targets?
On Friday, 20 September, the German Climate Cabinet agreed on the guidelines for German climate policy for the coming decade, set against the backdrop of EU targets. The core topic was additional CO2-pricing in the mobility and heating sectors. From 2021 a CO2-price of âŹ10/ton will apply to the German transport and buildings sectors. The price will rise to âŹ35/ton until 2025. But Simon Göss says the national emission trading system and new … [Read more...]
Calculating the effect of $50/tonne CO2 on energy prices
Despite much debate, governments are hesitant to raise â or even impose â carbon pricing, worried about the direct impact it will have on businesses and consumers.To help understand its effect Severin Borenstein at the Energy Institute at Haas has crunched the numbers of a $50/tonne CO2 price, very expensive by todayâs standards. Heâs calculated the actual price increases on a gallon of petrol/gasoline, gas- and coal-fired generation, and natural … [Read more...]
Rising green taxes: making them acceptable to all
Environmental taxes hurt low-income households the most because they spend a much higher proportion of their income on heating oil, natural gas, and electricity. Itâs why Spain has low green taxes, far below the EU average. Mark Dwortzan at MIT explains how researchers from the U.S., Germany and Spain teamed up to show that low-income households can benefit from environmental taxes provided those tax revenues are carefully redistributed in their … [Read more...]
Energy security v Transition in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey
Like most developing countries, the challenge of growing economies, increasing population and rapid urbanisation puts energy security above emissions reductions. So it is for Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Turkey, says Duygu Sever in her report for IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate. In this article she explains that all four countries nevertheless have high renewables deployment potential, and have already embraced wind and solar. To accelerate … [Read more...]
UN Climate Summit seeks NDCs, LTSs with deep sectoral changes
To pile on the pressure over climate negotiations, the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is convening a special Climate Action Summit, starting today. Nations are being pressed to accelerate their ambitions and back them up with concrete and realistic plans. The summit will be focussed on six âaction areasâ: energy transition; industry transition; infrastructure, cities and local action; nature-based solutions; resilience and adaptation; … [Read more...]
UN climate summit: which nations are leading, which failing
Ahead of the UN climate summit in New York on September 23rd, where countries are expected to set themselves more ambitious targets and roadmaps than they did in Paris in 2015, Bill Hare of Climate Analytics looks at the emissions league table. There are some surprises at the top: Ethiopia, Morocco and India, though he points out being at the top can still be a long way from doing enough to meet the 1.5â goal. At the bottom are Australia, the … [Read more...]
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