Alex Schmitt and Huangluolun Zhou at Energy Brainpool present a summary of their “EU Energy Outlook 2060”. Its scenarios map out how the European (EU 27, UK, Switzerland and Norway) energy system will change dramatically in the coming decades. Current geopolitical tensions are added to climate mitigation and an outdated power plant fleet as the main drivers of change at the EU and national levels. The in-depth modelling is trying to answer the … [Read more...]
IEA says peak coal is a few years away, but China’s demand for energy suggests not
Lucas Davis at the Haas School of Business questions the IEA’s optimism revealed in its latest World Energy Outlook 2022 that predicted coal will peak in the next few years. In 2021, global coal consumption increased 5% and global electricity generation from coal reached an all-time high. China is the main driver - last year over half of all coal-fired electricity generation came from China - and its energy demand keeps rising. Between 2000 and … [Read more...]
Russia’s war is accelerating the clean energy transition, says IEA
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2022 is predicting that fossil fuels will peak in the next five years, “thanks to” Russia’s war and the resultant energy crisis. National climate promises are being turned into policies that improve energy security, which mostly means reducing dependence on gas. That means global energy demand growth to 2030 will “almost entirely” be met by renewables. Simon Evans at Carbon Brief takes an in-depth look at the … [Read more...]
$78tn net gain for compensated global Coal phase-out, when social benefits are added
Is replacing coal with renewables too expensive? No, it’s the opposite, explain Tobias Adrian at the International Monetary Fund, Patrick Bolton at Imperial College London and Alissa Kleinnijenhuis at the Oxford Martin School who summarise their paper. When the social benefits are added, the net gain globally is around $78tn under a conservative estimate. That’s equal to 1.2% of current world GDP every year until 2100 – these are real economic … [Read more...]
Is a Carbon Tax the best way to decarbonise the Grid?
Severin Borenstein at the Energy Institute at Haas and Ryan Kellogg at the University of Chicago question whether carbon pricing is the best way to decarbonise the electricity grid. The authors did an empirical analysis of all of the fossil plants in the US. It shows that a CES (clean electricity standard) or zero-emissions subsidies would close down fossil plants in almost the same order as a carbon tax. So using alternative policy tools can … [Read more...]
Carbon Capture is a risky decarbonisation pathway: 13 flagship projects reviewed
The debate around the effectiveness of carbon capture (you can register now for our CCUS session on Wednesday at 10.45 - Editor) has led to polarising views. Although the first implementations began 50 years ago, serious efforts to capture large volumes cost-effectively are in their infancy and unproven at scale. Is it, given time and support, a solution to excess emissions worldwide? Or is it a distraction that will allow fossils to be used yet … [Read more...]
As spot market electricity prices break all records, what is the prediction for winter?
Spot market prices for electricity have been breaking all records, as European leaders and their ministers intensify their discussions on how to deal with the crisis. Simon Göss at cr.hub, writing for Energy Brainpool, starts by explaining how the markets work, noting that price rises are indeed being driven by fossil prices and not CO2 certificates. Göss looks at how prices have climbed in Germany, France, the Baltics and Spain, and how the … [Read more...]
Can China’s 14th 5-year-plan for Renewable Energy deliver an early emissions peak before 2030?
At the beginning of June China released its 14th five-year plan (FYP) for renewable energy for the five years 2021-2025. Hu Min at Innovative Green Development Program, writing for Carbon Brief, reviews the plan’s targets and actions, and its implications. Unchanged from the 13th FYP, 25% of China’s energy will come from non-fossil sources by 2030. But the 14th FYP says at least half of the increase in electricity demand will be covered by … [Read more...]
A role for Coal? Low-cost, negative emissions Blue Hydrogen from “MAWGS” Coal/Biomass co-gasification
Schalk Cloete summarises his co-authored study that explains how to make hydrogen at unbeatably low prices from coal/biomass co-gasification. Though the “blue” hydrogen process creates CO2, the self-contained plant using a membrane-assisted water-gas shift (MAWGS) reactor means 100% is captured easily. Better still, the use of biomass means the plant achieves negative emissions. The overall efficiency of the process is a very impressive 69%. The … [Read more...]
Deep Geothermal: accessing 500°C for steam turbines. Can it make coal, gas, nuclear redundant?
The concept of “deep geothermal” is very simple. Dig deep enough, like 20km, to access a permanent reservoir of 500°C of heat. There, you generate the steam to power your turbines. The digging of a stable hole and getting the steam to the turbine is the big engineering challenge. But if you find a way that allows you to do it anywhere in the world (i.e. not limiting yourself to existing geological formations), nobody will ever need other … [Read more...]
Record global clean energy spending, but it’s still not enough and costs are rising
Since 2020, clean energy investment has grown by 12% per year – it was only 2%/year during the five years after the 2015 Paris Agreement. That boost is the main reason why total global energy investment is set to reach $2.4tn in 2022, according to the latest “World Energy Investment” report from the IEA. It’s very good news that spending on solar PV, batteries and EVs is now growing at rates consistent with reaching global net zero emissions by … [Read more...]
Russia-Ukraine: modelling the consequences for the European electricity market to 2050
Alex Schmitt, Christoph Kellermann, Calvin Triems and Huangluolun Zhou at Energy Brainpool have used their modelling tools to update their predictions of how the European electricity market will develop over the next 30 years, given a target of 99% emission-free generation in 2050. Projections are made on generation (mix and volumes) and price. The big change from their last predictions is the Russia-Ukraine war and Europe’s determination to ramp … [Read more...]
How the U.S. can meet its target of halving emissions by 2030
Writing for Carbon Brief, John Bistline at the Electric Power Research Institute summarises his co-authored paper “Actions for reducing US emissions at least 50% by 2030”, the target set by the Biden administration. The paper provides detailed projections and actionable insights about the policies and technology deployment needed to achieve this near-term climate goal. Roughly 70-90% of emissions reductions by 2030 must come from the power and … [Read more...]
Will China’s gigantic wind and solar “bases” mean targets met four years early?
China will have doubled its 2020 installed wind and solar capacity by 2025, exceeding 1,100GW, according to government plans. That’s four years sooner than required to meet their target of peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. Writing for Carbon Brief, Lauri Myllyvirta and Xing Zhang at CREA explain that the main driver is the creation of “clean energy bases”: large-scale concentrations of wind and solar power on deserts … [Read more...]
China’s impressive growth in Renewables and Transmission now needs Market innovation
***REGISTER NOW for CHINA: Carbon Neutral by 2060 - INNOVATION*** - China has the world’s largest power plant fleet for both coal and renewables. Together they make up most of the total power capacity of over 2,200 GW... STOP PRESS: China's Transition is the biggest single opportunity for managing climate change and also for those businesses who are ready with the innovations that will ensure the best possible outomes in an incredibly … [Read more...]
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