This month the IEA published its annual flagship World Energy Outlook (WEO). Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool picks out his highlights. This year’s WEO has four scenarios, two of them new: an updated “Stated Policies Scenario” (STEPS: what governments have promised), the new “Delayed Recovery Scenario” (DRS: due to Covid), an updated “Sustainable Development Scenario” (SDS: what’s needed to meet the Paris targets), and the new “Net Zero Emissions … [Read more...]
Archives for October 2020
Europe has enough Gas infrastructure. Why build more?
In early November a first vote is expected in the European Parliament on the Recovery & Resilience Facility’s €672.5bn budget. Esther Bollendorff at CAN Europe runs through the arguments against providing any funding for new gas infrastructure. She presents evidence to show that the EU is already oversupplied with gas import capacity, and all new fossil gas transmission projects have been rejected by the market since 2017. Solar and wind … [Read more...]
Nuclear Fusion: will super-cable technology bring “inexhaustible” energy supply a step closer?
Nuclear fusion is the process the Sun uses to produce energy. But attempts to replicate that process here on Earth have all needed more energy to run them than they generate (our existing nuclear plants use fission). Now a team led by MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center and MIT spinout company Commonwealth Fusion Systems has developed and tested high-temperature superconductor (HTS) cable technology that can ensure the high-performance magnets … [Read more...]
Europe’s Deep Buildings Renovations need to quadruple
The European Green Deal must grasp the opportunity to kick-start buildings renovations, says Thibaud VoĂŻta at the IFRI Center for Energy & Climate, summarising his report “The Renovation Wave: A Make or Break for the European Green Deal”. A lot of European buildings are old, and progress is slow. Stiffer regulations have helped, and household energy efficiency has risen by 30% since 2000. But the number of deep building renovations completed … [Read more...]
ELCC: how to measure grid stability as renewables are added
We cannot just swap 24/7 fossil fuel power plants for intermittent renewables. To prevent electricity shortfalls the capacity of a solar or wind plant must exceed that of the fossil fuel plant it replaces. But by how much? That’s the question that the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) metric is designed to answer. It’s not a new concept, but is now becoming very important. Mark Specht at the Union of Concerned Scientists explains the … [Read more...]
Are 1.5°C scenarios supplanting “Business As Usual” as the new benchmark?
The world energy outlooks published annually by the IEA, BP and DNV GL look very different this year. 1.5°C scenarios are being taken much more seriously. Could it be because of the trauma of Covid-19, or the extraordinary – though still insufficient – success of renewables coupled with the rising ambition of climate-aware governments and their policies? Either way, they are helping to shift the debate away from the mainstream “business as usual” … [Read more...]
The energy transition needs some of the $12tn global Covid stimulus. But much less than you think
Governments worldwide have committed over $12tn to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, spent over the next 5 years. Current estimates say the energy transition needs $1.4tn/year globally between 2020 and 2024 to get us on the path to meet the 1.5oC Paris goal. Clearly, there is an opportunity here. Although support for healthcare systems and the overall economy are the stated priority of governments, much of that $12tn is still not committed. … [Read more...]
Improving cost and performance modelling for energy technologies, old and new
Measuring the performance of an energy technology is key to informing policies and pathways as the transition scales up. But are we measuring all the right things and getting accurate answers? If we’re not, those policies and pathways could end up wrong. Paul Sapin at Imperial College, UK, explains how they are creating a library of data-rich models to greatly improve predictive power for all energy technologies, both existing and emerging. He … [Read more...]
World Energy Outlook 2020: IEA responds to some difficult questions
The IEA has issued an FAQ to try to answer some persistent questions and criticisms about their annual World Energy Outlooks (WEO). How come the growth of solar and wind have been consistently underestimated? When is “peak oil” going to happen? Will the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C this century? Is it realistic? Why has a “Net Zero Emissions by 2050” (NZE2050) pathway been added this year? Do … [Read more...]
How ready is the switchgear industry to abandon SF₆, the worst greenhouse gas?
Are firms in the switchgear industry - power utilities, industrial sites, and related service and infrastructure sectors - happy to switch from using the gas SF6 and use alternatives that are less harmful to the climate? This is the question Marie-Charlotte Guetlein and Carine Sebi at the Grenoble École de Management asked over 400 switchgear customers to find out what’s needed to make the change. SF6 has 23,500 times the impact of CO2  and an … [Read more...]
Decarbonising end-use sectors: buildings, transport, industry. Which strategies are best?
The rapid pace of change in the energy sector is a positive sign for the transition. But the disruption it causes creates another big problem. It makes it harder to predict what will happen next. That makes strategies and pathways harder to design, and increases the risk of stranded assets. To try to come to grips with that future, Sean Ratka, Paul Durrant and Francisco Boshell summarise the findings of IRENA's 4-day “Innovation Week” held last … [Read more...]
U.S. Nuclear: change the laws that constrain foreign and domestic investment
Today, Russia and China dominate global nuclear exports and new additions while the U.S. experiences budget overruns and cancellations. Once at the forefront, the U.S. should regain its leadership of nuclear power, argue Matt Bowen, Jennifer Gordon and Jackie Kempfer at the Atlantic Council. To recover its position it first needs to change the laws and policies that constrain its ability to cooperate with allies on nuclear matters, invest in … [Read more...]
Research into solid electrolytes to improve performance of lithium-ion batteries
If the limits of lithium-ion battery performance are indeed being reached, one way forward is to extend those limits with new materials. Mark Shwartz at Stanford University describes their research into solid electrolytes, which promise to be more energy dense than the standard liquid form. To identify the best compounds, artificial intelligence and machine learning were used rather than the usual and much lengthier trial-and-error experimental … [Read more...]
Why promote Rooftop Solar when the Grid is so much cheaper?
Is rooftop solar in the U.S. getting more support than it deserves? One main argument from its advocates is that it will cut grid transmission and distribution costs that total hundreds of millions. Severin Borenstein at the Energy Institute at Haas crunches some numbers to try to uncover the true “avoided costs”. He shows that any savings won’t come even close to making up for the higher cost of rooftop electricity. It’s no match for the grid’s … [Read more...]
Why Autogas Could Help Us All Breathe More Easily
Since the COVID-19 crisis and subsequent lockdowns, many cities around the world experienced a marked improvement in urban air quality, but with traffic getting back to “normal”, air pollution is rebounding and, alongside the continued public health crisis, we are now facing an economic recession. Mobility is essential to securing jobs and getting the economy back on track, but it should not come at the expense of the environment. Filipa Rio, … [Read more...]