Is there a way to impose sanctions on Russia that cuts its revenues without causing fossil fuel prices to balloon? The current strategy has seen oil prices rise to $120/barrel by mid-June, so although volumes are down Russia has seen no reduction in revenues. In other words, it has not achieved its objective, says Edward Chow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Instead, he argues for imposing a big import tariff – like … [Read more...]
If Russia cuts its gas supplies to Germany, what happens next?
Replacing Russian pipeline gas to Europe in the short term is much more difficult than finding alternative sources for coal and oil. It’s why the EU hasn’t banned Russian gas. But what if Russia cuts off the supply? Benjamin Wehrmann at Clean Energy Wire looks at what the consequences and options are for Germany. Though Germany aims to wean itself off Russian supplies almost entirely by 2024, a sudden cut would have serious consequences. Storage … [Read more...]
Russia-Ukraine: modelling the consequences for the European electricity market to 2050
Alex Schmitt, Christoph Kellermann, Calvin Triems and Huangluolun Zhou at Energy Brainpool have used their modelling tools to update their predictions of how the European electricity market will develop over the next 30 years, given a target of 99% emission-free generation in 2050. Projections are made on generation (mix and volumes) and price. The big change from their last predictions is the Russia-Ukraine war and Europe’s determination to ramp … [Read more...]
EU’s latest sanctions on Russian Oil: what are they and will it work?
On June 3, the EU agreed an embargo on Russian crude oil and petroleum products. Ben Cahill at the Center for Strategic and International Studies looks at the details of the latest sanctions imposed in response to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and assesses the possible consequences. The aim is to cut oil imports from Russia by 90 percent by February 2023. A critical part of the sanctions is a ban on providing shipping insurance to Russian … [Read more...]
Critical minerals: price spikes are affecting Wind, Solar, Batteries, EVs
A wide range of critical minerals are needed for the energy transition. Tae-Yoon Kim at the IEA summarises the reasons why we should expect this to be a year of price spikes due in the main to the Russia-Ukraine war and post-lockdown supply chain bottlenecks. So severe is the problem that the long record of declining costs in clean energy technologies like solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles is being reversed. Although these crises will … [Read more...]
Russia-Ukraine stalls EU Biofuels, but accelerates its medium/long-term targets
Rising food and fuel costs are pushing several EU countries to freeze or lower 2022-2023 low-carbon blending mandates for transportation fuels. That will likely mean a rise in emissions, but only in the short term, says Cornelius Claeys at Stratas Advisors. However, the same policymakers understand that ending imports of fossil fuels from a belligerent Russia is an opportunity to raise low-carbon targets for the medium and long term. So, right … [Read more...]
Record Renewables additions for 2021 and 2022 despite supply bottlenecks prove Solar & Wind’s resilience
Despite – or perhaps because of – global market and political turmoil, renewable power is set to break another record in 2022. That’s after 2021 also saw record new capacity from solar, wind and other renewables worldwide. It’s mainly driven by solar PV in China and Europe as governments around the world take advantage of renewables’ energy security and climate benefits, according to the IEA’s latest Renewable Energy Market Update. 295GW of new … [Read more...]
Seven ways for the U.S. and Europe to enhance energy security and advance climate goals
Ending reliance on Russian fossil exports will need the U.S. and Europe to work together, explain Joseph Majkut, Nikos Tsafos and Ben Cahill at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The U.S. is the world’s largest oil and gas producer and is able to increase output. At the same time, it must meet global emissions targets. The way to do it is to increase fossil exports temporarily whilst improving its carbon reduction measures (e.g. … [Read more...]
Europe must simultaneously replace Russia’s fossil exports and accelerate its clean energy deployment
The Ukraine crisis has had an immediate impact on Europe’s strategy for energy supply security. And this week’s sudden halting of gas supplies by Russia to Poland and Bulgaria only emphasises the urgency. Dolf Gielen, Ricardo Gorini, Luis Janeiro and Seán Collins at IRENA look at the best options, basing their findings on their latest “World Energy Transitions Outlook”, published in March, that lays out a routemap for the next eight years for … [Read more...]
How could Germany wind down Russian oil imports by the end of 2022
Berlin has said that, though difficult, it could become independent of Russian oil imports by the end of 2022, with a target of halving them by the middle of the year. Kerstine Appunn at Clean Energy Wire compiles information on the practical challenges for Germany’s oil infrastructure, refineries and security of supply. Germany is serviced by three pipeline systems for the west, the east and the south of the country. But they are not connected … [Read more...]
Post-war Ukraine needs energy independence, decarbonisation and EU cooperation
Energy independence is a choice for some countries. For Ukraine it is a life-or-death necessity, says Andriy Konechenkov, VP of the World Wind Energy Association and Chairman of the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association, in this op-ed. The Russian invasion has exposed the vulnerability of Ukraine’s current energy system. Many of its fossil-fuelled power plants are near the Russian border, exposing them to disruption by the invading neighbour. The … [Read more...]
Europe’s long-term energy security: do not become dependent on “green” Russia’s future LNG and Hydrogen exports
It’s not enough for Europe to cut Russian energy imports without a plan to make the change endure, says Leslie Palti-Guzman writing for the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center. Boycotts and divestments usually have expiry dates. What’s more, Russia will be proactive in driving its export capabilities to make them commercially attractive in the post-war world. Russia plans expanding LNG shipments from its Yamal Peninsular, as well as getting … [Read more...]
Q&A: How fast can renewables deliver on Germany’s new energy independence goals?
How quickly can Germany reduce its dependence on fossil fuels? Benjamin Wehrmann at Clean Energy Wire asks six practical questions that must be answered, then gathers the expert answers. What are the current expansion goals for wind, solar and other renewables? Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will the new emergency plans bring an end to Russian imports as well as reach climate targets? Are renewable power companies ready to deliver a fast … [Read more...]
Buildings Renovation: if Europe had started a decade ago it wouldn’t have a Russian oil & gas problem
It’s a message we are starting to see a lot. If ambitious climate policies struggling to be implemented today had been launched a decade ago, Europe wouldn’t have a Russian oil and gas problem. Andreas Rüdinger at IDDRI looks at buildings renovations in France. Two missed targets, proposed in 2008, are a 38% reduction in energy consumption in existing buildings by 2020, and 400,000 “major” renovations annually. If they had been met, natural gas … [Read more...]
Price volatility and greenwashing: do Gas and LNG make economic or climate sense?
While governments urgently rethink their gas policies, Christina Ng and Sam Reynolds at IEEFA summarise the evidence against the claim that gas and LNG can be green and have a sound economic future. Firstly, most measurements of emissions do not include the full life-cycle of production. For LNG that includes extraction, transport, liquefaction, and re-gasification. They point at studies that say it can be almost as much as the emissions produced … [Read more...]
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