The compelling reason why fossil fuel producers will be needed even beyond 2050 is that they currently provide over 80% of global energy, and 90% of the world’s population still needs the wealth creation that energy delivers, says Schalk Cloete. Given that, he summarises his co-authored paper that takes a close look at how a fossil exporter, Norway, can trade with an importer, Germany, while decarbonising. The modelling focusses on electricity … [Read more...]
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Modelling green Ammonia and Methanol in 2050. It will be expensive
Schalk Cloete starts by explaining that it is unrealistic to expect clean electrification to carry the main burden of energy supply. Even a fast roll out will be constrained by a range of infrastructure and cost limitations. Hence our continued dependence on fuels, with their high energy density and ease of transport. Those fuels will have to be made clean, so he summarises his co-authored papers that model the cost of green and blue ammonia and … [Read more...]
Clean Turquoise Hydrogen: a pathway to commercial readiness
Whereas blue hydrogen from methane produces CO2, the by-product of turquoise hydrogen is pure carbon. The obvious advantage is you can make your hydrogen without the need for expensive new infrastructure to transport and store any CO2. Turquoise hydrogen is only at the start-up phase, so Schalk Cloete summarises his co-authored paper that looks at various scenarios to estimate the cost of producing the hydrogen (using molten salt pyrolysis) and, … [Read more...]
A role for Coal? Low-cost, negative emissions Blue Hydrogen from “MAWGS” Coal/Biomass co-gasification
Schalk Cloete summarises his co-authored study that explains how to make hydrogen at unbeatably low prices from coal/biomass co-gasification. Though the “blue” hydrogen process creates CO2, the self-contained plant using a membrane-assisted water-gas shift (MAWGS) reactor means 100% is captured easily. Better still, the use of biomass means the plant achieves negative emissions. The overall efficiency of the process is a very impressive 69%. The … [Read more...]
Fossil Fuel divestment is premature: instead, enable investment to keep prices low, and tax consumption
We need to shift investment from fossil fuels to other climate-friendly energy sources, but it must be done more intelligently than we’re doing it today, says Schalk Cloete. The rapid global economic development needed to uplift the 86% of the world’s population currently living below $1,000/month is inextricably linked to the continued and timely growth in an abundant supply of affordable energy. It would be unjust – and probably futile – to … [Read more...]
The 10 big problems with simply replacing fossil cars with electric
The planned rapid transition to electric vehicles has major challenges. Schalk Cloete compiles them into a list of ten, including: preserving our car-centric cities preserves its inefficiencies and societal costs; it works against much of the personal “behaviour change” we need; though BEVs (battery electric vehicles) are better in cities, when infrastructure costs are included they are less efficient than hybrids and modern ICEs for many driving … [Read more...]
Will Wind & Solar confront its 10 challenges? If not, we need Nuclear, CCS, and more
Wind and solar’s impressive cost declines have seen its welcome and rapid emergence. But currently they account for a mere 2–4% of global energy. So these variable renewable energy sources (VREs) must now address 10 big challenges if they are to dominate the energy sector, explains Schalk Cloete in this data-led review. Their cost declines will be confronted and even cancelled by new costs they’ve not yet faced during their low-hanging-fruit … [Read more...]
Norway an EV role model? Their pathway is expensive and paid for with oil & gas exports
Norway is an EV leader thanks to a generous pot of tax incentives. Today, battery-electric cars make up more than half of all new car sales in Norway. Schalk Cloete takes a detailed look at what those incentives cost, and how many tonnes of CO2 they avoid. In short, Norway – a major oil and gas exporter - needs to sell over 100 barrels of oil (which emits 40 tonnes of CO2) to pay for the tax breaks it gives EVs to avoid one tonne of CO2. And … [Read more...]
Public opposition and grid integration costs: the two limiting factors for Wind?
Are we heading for an over-reliance on wind? With wind generation costs continuing to drop dramatically, Schalk Cloete takes a data-driven look at the obstacles wind will face as its contribution to the global energy mix (a little over 2% today) keeps rising. In the main, it is grid integration and public opposition to very visible turbines – and they are related. Putting turbines out of sight and offshore will increase transmission costs. And … [Read more...]
Green or Blue Hydrogen: cost analysis uncovers which is best for the Hydrogen Economy
Blue hydrogen is created from fossil sources, where the carbon emissions are captured and stored. Green hydrogen is made from non-fossil sources and favoured by policy makers who are wary of keeping the fossil economy going, even with CCS. As more regions commit to hydrogen, finding the right cost-optimal mix is crucial to its success. Schalk Cloete summarises his paper that models the whole system based on Germany. Integrating hydrogen will … [Read more...]
Tesla’s BEVs vs. Toyota’s hybrids: the battle for the future of low emission cars
Which car firm will dominate the future? Tesla and its BEVs or Toyota with its hybrids? Schalk Cloete looks at the cost reductions coming down the line. He says that the hybrids have many more improvements on the way, whereas in terms of performance and efficiency the BEVs are already reaching their peak. Though further and considerable progress in battery technology is coming, it will benefit both. For city driving both will rely on battery … [Read more...]
We need Behaviour Change and “Life Efficiency”, because efficiency gains and clean energy will never be enough
Behaviour change – reducing emissions by changing how we live our lives - should be part of every government and think tank’s sustainable scenario, explains Schalk Cloete. That’s because impressive advances in energy efficiency and clean energy won’t be enough to contain the emissions of a world continuing with the essential task of lifting billions of people out of poverty. But this should not be seen as a problem, says Cloete, because behaviour … [Read more...]
Behaviour Change: Covid-19 lockdown kicks open the door to a net-zero pathway
Working from home and minimal travel are “no brainer” ways to drastically reduce emissions. They’ve never been tried on a nationwide scale anywhere. Now they are, everywhere. Everyone is doing their best to make it work. Next, food waste should also be in decline, hopefully. Even if panic stockpiling happens, people’s mindsets are being changed as they try to use everything they’ve bought. The act of re-thinking what and how much we eat, in every … [Read more...]
How much subsidy do EVs need to be competitive?
Despite a wide range of subsidies and incentives, battery electric vehicles (BEV) make up only 1.4% of new car sales in the U.S. That the effective battery cost is zero to the consumer doesn’t seem to be lifting that number any higher. Meanwhile, in Norway the percentage is a much more impressive 42%, but those subsidies and incentives are far higher: the effective battery cost is negative 385 $/kWh for a typical 60kWh battery pack, i.e. a very … [Read more...]
Two new designs, GSR and MA-ATR, to make “blue” Hydrogen cheaper
What’s the best way to make clean hydrogen? Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) is the most common and cheapest way of producing hydrogen, but it also produces CO2 emissions. Capturing that CO2 is complex and costly. Schalk Cloete presents research on two new designs for “blue” hydrogen (blue = derived from natural gas/coal with carbon capture/CCS). He describes in detail Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) and Membrane-Assisted Autothermal Reforming … [Read more...]